• •

### 小家鼠(Mus musculus)种群动态预测及机制的探讨

1. 中国科学院西北高原生物研究所
• 出版日期:2011-11-22 发布日期:2011-11-22

### THE PREDICTION TO FLUCTUATIONS IN HOME MOUSE (Mus musculus) POPULATION AND STUDIES OF MECHANISM

YAN Zhitang, ZHONG Mingming

1. Northwest Plateau Institute of Biology, Academic Sinica
• Online:2011-11-22 Published:2011-11-22

Abstract: Population fluctuations on home mouse in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 1972 to 1983 have no periodicity, so that it's rather difficult to predict the population fluctuations on house mouse.Seven new regression equatior.s that can estimate the wild house mouse population number eleven months earlier than it's actual cccurence have been made. The highest number of house mouse population next year or this year may be calculated by the following formulas:1. M10= 5.60x + 5.80 Where M10 represents the highest number of house mouse population in next year (as following, except the formula 4, where M10 represents the highest number of house mouse population in this year), x represents the ratios among the olds and adults to subadults in October-Novem-ber;2. M10=0.30x+5.28Where x represents the rate of pregnancy of adults in October;3. M10=4.19x-13.56 Where x represents the number of embryo of adults in October;4. Ml0=4.80x+11.88Where x represents the April's number of house mouse population;5. M10= 3.298x1+ 0.142x2 + 6.107Where xt represents the ratios among the olds and adults to subadults, x2 represents the rate of pregnancy;6. M10 = 4.717x1 + 0.609x2+ 4.811 Where xt represents the ratios among the olds and adults to subadults, x2 represents the number of embryo;7. M10 = 0.2l9x1 + 1.594x2-3.067 Where x1 represents the rate of pregnancy, x2 represents the number of embryo. It is clear that the fluctuations in house mouse population are a process of self-regulation which must be controled by the highest population last year, and at the same time has an influence on the population number of next year. This is due to the function of density-dependence.These results obtained from above-mentioned formulas to predict the highest number of house mouse population in 1983 are satisfactory.These values of prediction are 14.76 to 18.81%, the value of actual investigation is 15,84%,