YAN Zhitang, ZHONG Mingming
摘要： 我国学者夏武平(1966)用9月铗日捕获率预测东北棕背(鼠平)(Clethrionomys rufocanus)数量以来,严志堂等(1983)应用种群年龄结构的回归方程预测新疆天山北麓农区塔西河地区的小家鼠(Mus musculus)种群密度获初步成功,并根据该文提供的一个改进公式M10=5.60x+5.80(x表示种群年龄的成亚比,M10表示小家鼠10月数量,即年内最高数量),提前11个月预测该地的小家鼠种群最高数量。
Abstract: Population fluctuations on home mouse in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 1972 to 1983 have no periodicity, so that it's rather difficult to predict the population fluctuations on house mouse.Seven new regression equatior.s that can estimate the wild house mouse population number eleven months earlier than it's actual cccurence have been made. The highest number of house mouse population next year or this year may be calculated by the following formulas:1. M10= 5.60x + 5.80 Where M10 represents the highest number of house mouse population in next year (as following, except the formula 4, where M10 represents the highest number of house mouse population in this year), x represents the ratios among the olds and adults to subadults in October-Novem-ber;2. M10=0.30x+5.28Where x represents the rate of pregnancy of adults in October;3. M10=4.19x-13.56 Where x represents the number of embryo of adults in October;4. Ml0=4.80x+11.88Where x represents the April's number of house mouse population;5. M10= 3.298x1+ 0.142x2 + 6.107Where xt represents the ratios among the olds and adults to subadults, x2 represents the rate of pregnancy;6. M10 = 4.717x1 + 0.609x2+ 4.811 Where xt represents the ratios among the olds and adults to subadults, x2 represents the number of embryo;7. M10 = 0.2l9x1 + 1.594x2-3.067 Where x1 represents the rate of pregnancy, x2 represents the number of embryo. It is clear that the fluctuations in house mouse population are a process of self-regulation which must be controled by the highest population last year, and at the same time has an influence on the population number of next year. This is due to the function of density-dependence.These results obtained from above-mentioned formulas to predict the highest number of house mouse population in 1983 are satisfactory.These values of prediction are 14.76 to 18.81%, the value of actual investigation is 15,84%,
严志堂, 钟明明. 小家鼠(Mus musculus)种群动态预测及机制的探讨[J]. .
YAN Zhitang, ZHONG Mingming. THE PREDICTION TO FLUCTUATIONS IN HOME MOUSE (Mus musculus) POPULATION AND STUDIES OF MECHANISM[J]. .