• • 上一篇    下一篇

洞庭湖稻区黑线姬鼠种群数量预测

王勇, 陈安国, 郭聪, 李波, 李世斌   

  1. 中国科学院长沙农业现代化研究所
  • 出版日期:2006-06-29 发布日期:2008-07-07

FORECASTING THE POPULATION DENSITY OFSTRIPED FIELD MOUSE IN THE RICE AREA

WANG Yong, CHEN Anguo, GUO Cong, LIBo, LI Shibi   

  • Online:2006-06-29 Published:2008-07-07

摘要: 作者于1986年10月至1995年3 月对洞庭湖稻区黑线姬鼠的种群数量作了逐月调查。根据1986年10月至1990年5月在湖南省桃源和汉寿县调查的结果,应用逐步回归分析法建立了预测模型并预报了岳阳县1992年6月、10月, 1993年3月、6月、10月, 1994年3月、6月、10月和1995年3月黑线姬鼠种群的发生数量, 发现数量级预测值与实测值吻合程度良好。

关键词: 黑线姬鼠, 预测预报, 逐步回归分析

Abstract: We studied the population of striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) in Taoyuan, Henshou and Chunfeng, Hunan province from October, 1986 to March, 1995. The mouse population was forecasted with means of stepwise regression analysis, and the linear regression equation was obtained: Y= 0.7966X1+ 1.1149X2- 10.0921X3- 2.4019 (m = 3, df = 39, Sy= 2.9364, R = 0.8289 )   Where X1: Cardinal number (Capture rate of March for the period of April to October; Capture rate of October for the period of November to March) ; X2: Reproductive index (Litter size/Number of females) ; X3: Age structure:Ⅲ♀/N; proportion of adult female to total number; Y: Forecasted month density two months later.   We predicted the population densities of striped field mouse with the linear regression in June and October, 1992. March, June and October, 1993 and 1994. March,1995. The predicted values matched with the real population densities of striped field mouse in the field.  

Key words: Striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius), Forecasting, Stepwise regression analysis