Abstract: Estimate of the dynamic Of musk resource at Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefec—
ture in the theory of Grey System and based on the investigation of wild musk deer
(Moschus berezovskii， M ．sifanicus)， we create the musk resource prediction model of this areas with the purchase information of musk from 1967 t0 1975．the prediction equation after 1967 is: X⁽¹⁾(t)=-108214．5273e^-0.0973 (t-t。) + 1839．9007e^-1.1494(t-t₀)+ 113969.1266
the degree of connectiou S=0．9279，we simulate of the predition and the purchase information are very closely，the average error rate is -5．6829% (-16．6076~ 9．3533%)．but after 1978，the prediction and the purchase information are signification difference．the reason of the difference are， from 1978 to 1982， excessive pursue． and after 1982，the main factor caused the musk reduce is excessive pursue and lawless smuggle by some illgal person.

Key words: Grey system, Grey dynamic model, Musk purchase information Animal resource, Management

摘要： 本文将灰色系统理论及其模型运用到野生动物资源管理及保护利用的研究中。四川省甘
孜藏族自治州是我国重要的产香区，我们通过收集该区历年麝香产量分析了该区麝香资源动
态规律及其与人为活动的关系。
我们利用该区1967-1975年麝香收购量建立的麝香资源状态及预测模型是X⁽¹⁾(t)=-108214．5273e^-0.0973 (t-t。) + 1839．9007e^-1.1494(t-t₀)+ 113969.1266关联度S=0．9278，1968-1975年预测产量与实际产量十分接近， 其平均误差为-5.6829%(-16．6075~9．3553 %)。

关键词: 灰色系统, 灰色系统模型, 麝香收购量, 动物资源, 管理