Abstract: The population dynamic and prediction to population number of Rattus rattoides Hodgson，were studied hom Oct．1984 to oct．1985 in Gutian county． Fujian．The result wgs briefly summarized below．
1。Raftus rattoideswas a dominant species of feral rebents in Gutian county，average capture rate was 17.76% ，and being 75.35％ of the whole feral rodents captured． The peak of the population density occurred in Nov．to Dec．
2 ． There Were obvious relationships between the population characteristics and the density． The population characteristics varied with densities．A correlatoon matrix used for representin g the relationships among population characteristics was derived
． The result showed that female ratio of adults， adults sex ratio，pregnancy rate and average litter size are all important population characteristics．
3．Using regression analysis and stepwise regression analysis by IBM Pc／XT microcomputer， four new regression equations that could estimate the population density four or five months before were made． The density of Rattus rattiodes coulb be calculated by the following formulas
(1) Y =4.7774+0.2231x
W here Y represents the population density of Rattus rattoides (capture rate)five months 1ater，x represents the fema1e ratio of adults．
(2) Y =48.4995—0.5378x
W hale Y represents the rats population density of five months later， x represents the Sex ratio of adults．
3) Y=10.7266+0.2560x
Where Y Teplesents the rats population density of five months later， x represents the pregnancy rate．
(4) Y =8.8532+1.7122x
Where Y reprsents the rats population density of four months later，x tepresents the average litter size．

Key words: Farmland rat, Population dynamics, Predction to population numbers, Reproduction index, Stepwise regression analysis

摘要： 本文研究了福建省古田县农田区黄毛鼠种群数量、种群特征的季节变化及其相互间的关系，运用回归分析和逐步回归分析的方法，得出利用雌成体性比、成体性比，怀孕率，胎仔数等种群特征，提前4或5个月预测种群数量的4个一元回归方程，并对预测的机制进行初步的探讨。

关键词: 黄毛鼠, 种群动态, 种群数量预测, 繁殖指数, 逐步回归分析