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A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF POPULATION VIABILITY FOR CHINESE WATER DEER (HYDR0POTES INERMIS )LIVED IN YANCHENG

XuHongfa,LU Houji   

  • Online:2006-07-25 Published:2008-07-07

盐城獐种群生存力的初步分析

徐宏发,陆厚基   

  1. 华东师范大学生物学系,上海

Abstract: Population viability analysis for Chinese water deer lived inYangcheng was conducted by using Vortex 6.0.The simulation model shows that the population of Chinese water deer Can survival long-term if no effect of tide and poaching. At 5 %mortality bypoaching,the probability of extinction will be over 5% for 100~200 individuals' population in the future of 90 years.At 10% mortality by poaching,the probability of extinction will be over 5 % in the future of l5~25 years for 100~200 individuals' population and40years for 300 ~ 500 individuals' population. At Low tide mortality level,the probability of extinction will be over 5% in the future15~23 years for l 00~ 200individuals' population and30 ~37 years for 300 ~500 indivuduals' population. At high tide mortality level,the probability of extinction will be over 5 % in the future 12~16 years for 100~ 200 individuals' population and 19~27years for 300~500 indtviduals' population. Urider the pressure of the effect of tide with poaching,the viability of water deer is very weak.The population of water deer lived in Yancheng will go extinction within a few of decades.
A suggestion for protecting Chinese water deer was provided in the paper. Two kinds of habitat need to protect the population according to the suggestion.The area of one habitat is large enough to host 200 deer and have no tide and poaching mortality,other one can host 500 deer and allow 15% and 40% tide mortality,but no poaching mortality.This metapopuIation including two populations can survivallong—term if l0 %individuals of population m igrate each other every year.

Key words: Vortex, Water deer (hydroptes inermis), Extinction, PVA

摘要: 本文采用Vortex6.0计算机程序对盐城獐(Hydroptes inermis)种群的生存力进行了分析.结果表明:若无狩猎和海潮侵袭的影响。在B容纳500头獐的栖息地中-盐城獐可长期生存.如猪猎死亡率达5% 和10% ,拥有100~200头獐的种群分别在32~50年和15~27年内灭地率超过5%;拥有300~500头的现存种群分别在90~95年和29~42年内灭绝率超过5%。在有海湘侵袭的栖息地中。不管现存种群多大,在来来25年左右的时问内种群灭绝率大于5%,在5O年内种群绝灭的可能性超过5O%。根据该地的实际情况,建议在无海潮侵袭的堤内选择至少能窖纳200头獐的栖息地和在相临的堤外选择船窖纳500头獐的栖息地建立保护区.才能保证盐城獐种群长期生存。

关键词: 獐, 旋涡模型, 种群灭绝, 生存力分析