欧亚猞猁在中国的分布现状与适宜栖息地预测

刘轲; 刘炎林; 李晟

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150801

兽类学报 >

2023 , Vol. 43 >Issue 6: 652 - 663

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16829/j.slxb.150801

研究论文

欧亚猞猁在中国的分布现状与适宜栖息地预测

刘轲 ,
刘炎林 ,
李晟

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1 北京大学生命科学学院, 北京 100871;
2 青海师范大学生命科学学院, 西宁 810016;
3 中国猫科动物保护联盟, 北京 101121

刘轲(2002-)，男，本科生，主要从事野生动物生态学研究.

收稿日期: 2023-04-21

修回日期: 2023-07-07

网络出版日期: 2023-07-07

基金资助

科技部国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF1301500)；中华人民共和国濒危动物科学委员会“中国猫科动物生存状况报告”项目；祁连山国家公园青海管理局猫科动物本底调查项目；生态环境部生物多样性调查、观测与评估项目(2019HJ2096001006)

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The current distribution and prediction of suitable habitat of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in China

LIU Ke ,
LIU Yanlin ,
LI Sheng

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1 School of Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
2 College of Life Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810016, China;
3 Chinese Felid Conservation Alliance, Beijing 101121, China

Received date: 2023-04-21

Revised date: 2023-07-07

Online published: 2023-07-07

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摘要

欧亚猞猁(Lynx lynx)广泛分布于欧亚大陆北部，是我国干旱、半干旱生态系统中重要的顶级捕食者之一，在维护生态系统平衡中具有重要作用。20世纪中期以来，我国欧亚猞猁的种群与分布区经历了剧烈缩减，但对其分布现状与动态的了解十分缺乏，成为开展针对性保护规划与行动的主要障碍。为了解并更新欧亚猞猁在中国的分布现状，本研究基于红外相机调查数据库、文献数据库、新闻报道等多方数据来源，系统检索和整理了2010—2022年欧亚猞猁在中国的分布信息，共获得155条欧亚猞猁的野外确认记录。对这些分布位点进行疏化处理后，基于中国4大类24个环境变量，使用MaxEnt在5 km分辨率构建了欧亚猞猁在中国的适宜栖息地模型，预测该物种在我国当前的适宜栖息地。结果显示，欧亚猞猁当前共在全国9个省级行政区有确认分布，其中新疆维吾尔自治区的野外确认记录数最多(n=28)。使用中国及其周边地区欧亚猞猁分布位点数据进行聚类分析的结果显示，这些分布点可以分为东北、西北、西南3个片区。在适宜栖息地模型预测中，当RM=4.0时，MaxEnt模型平均AICc值最小，10个模型的平均AUC值为0.814，表明模型拟合良好。欧亚猞猁在我国的适宜栖息地总面积约328.74×10⁴ km²，主要分布在胡焕庸线以西的黑龙江北部、内蒙古东北部、四川西北部、西藏东部、新疆的阿尔泰山地区、天山地区与昆仑山地区，以及青海、甘肃交界的祁连山地区。年均温、最干月降水量与土地覆盖类型是影响欧亚猞猁栖息地适宜度的最重要因素。相较于IUCN提供的物种分布范围图层，本研究的结果显示，阿尔泰山―天山地区、内蒙古东北部、四川西部部分地区以及祁连山部分地区是IUCN物种评估中可能遗漏的空缺区域，亟需在后续调查中给予更多关注。

关键词： 欧亚猞猁; 大型食肉动物; 物种分布图; 适宜栖息地; 物种分布模型; 红外相机

本文引用格式

刘轲 , 刘炎林 , 李晟 . 欧亚猞猁在中国的分布现状与适宜栖息地预测[J]. 兽类学报, 2023 , 43(6) : 652 -663 . DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150801

Abstract

Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) is widely distributed in northern Eurasia and, is one of the top predators in arid and semi-arid ecosystems in China and plays a significant role in maintaining ecosystem balance. Since the mid-20th century, the Eurasian lynx in China has experienced dramatic population decline and range contraction. However, our knowledge on its distribution status and dynamics is still very limited, which is a critical obstacle to developing specific conservation planning and action. To determine the current distribution of Eurasian lynx in China, we conducted a comprehensive search from multiple sources, including camera-trapping datasets, literature databases, and news reports, on the occurrence records of this species in China from 2010 to 2022. A total of 155 confirmed occurrence records of Eurasian lynx were obtained and were used to construct a species distribution model to predict its suitable habitat across China using MaxEnt with 24 environmental variables of 4 categories. The results showed that Eurasian lynx is currently distributed in 9 provinces, among which Neimenggu has the most occurrence records (n = 28). The result of cluster analysis showed that these occurrence sites could be grouped into three distinct spatial clusters: northeast, northwest, and southwest China. The averaged model AICc was the lowest when the regularization multiplier (RM) was 4 for the MaxEnt model and the mean AUC of the 10 candidate models was 0.814, indicating good performance of model prediction. The total area of the model predicted suitable habitat in China is 328.74×10⁴ km², mainly located in northern Heilongjiang, northeastern Neimenggu, northwestern Sichuan, eastern Xizang, Altai, Tianshan and Kunlun Mountains in Xinjiang, and the Qilian Mountains along the border of Qinghai and Gansu. Annual mean temperature, precipitation of driest month and land cover type were the most important factors affecting the habitat suitability of Eurasian lynx in China. Compared to the species range map provided by IUCN, the Tianshan-Altai Mountain Region, northeastern Neimenggu, parts of western Sichuan, and the Qilian Mountains were probably omitted during the IUCN species assessment, and further studies are urgently needed to examine the population and distribution status of Eurasian lynx in these regions.

Key words： Eurasian lynx; Large carnivores; Species range map; Suitable habitat; Species distribution model; Cameratrapping

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