长爪沙鼠种群参数的敏感性和弹性分析及应用评价

刘伟; 杨鑫智; 杨忠; 韵树田; 宋利彪; 钟文勤; 王德华

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150792

兽类学报 >

2023 , Vol. 43 >Issue 4: 387 - 397

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16829/j.slxb.150792

研究论文

长爪沙鼠种群参数的敏感性和弹性分析及应用评价

刘伟 ,
杨鑫智 ,
杨忠 ,
韵树田 ,
宋利彪 ,
钟文勤 ,
王德华

展开

1 中国科学院动物研究所, 农业虫鼠害综合治理研究国家重点实验室, 北京 100101;
2 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
3 内蒙古锡林郭勒盟太仆寺旗草原站, 太仆寺旗 027000;
4 内蒙古锡林郭勒盟太仆寺旗资源保护站, 太仆寺旗 027000;
5 内蒙古锡林郭勒盟太仆寺旗农牧技术推广中心, 太仆寺旗 027000

刘伟(1972-)，男，博士，副研究员，主要从事动物种群生态学和行为生态学研究.

收稿日期: 2023-03-17

修回日期: 2023-05-16

网络出版日期: 2023-08-01

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(32090022,32090024)

收起

Sensitivity and elasticity analyses of population parameters and their application for pest management in Mongolian gerbils

LIU Wei ,
YANG Xinzhi ,
YANG Zhong ,
YUN Shutian ,
SONG Libiao ,
ZHONG Wenqin ,
WANG Dehua

Expand

1 State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3 Grassland Station of Taipusi Qi, Xilin Gole League, Inner Mongolia, Taipusi Qi 027000, China;
4 Resource Conservation Station of Taipusi Qi, Xilin Gole League, Inner Mongolia, Taipusi Qi 027000, China;
5 Agriculture and Husbandry Technology Promotion Center of Taipusi Qi, Xilin Gole League, Inner Mongolia, Taipusi Qi 027000, China

Received date: 2023-03-17

Revised date: 2023-05-16

Online published: 2023-08-01

Fold

摘要

摄动分析中的敏感性和弹性分析可以分别量化种群参数对种群周限增长率(λ)的影响程度和各参数效应的相对强弱，由此可以确定对λ变化影响最大的种群参数，并指示动物种群管理中的措施靶向。长爪沙鼠(Meriones unguiculatus)是分布于我国北方典型草原、荒漠草原及其毗邻的农牧交错带的优势鼠种之一。本文基于2000年10月至2004年10月在内蒙古农牧交错区获得的长爪沙鼠半自然围栏标志重捕种群数据。以雌性群体为例，通过MARK软件包中的MS模型分析了种群中亚成体和成体的表观存活率(s)以及亚成体性成熟转换为成体的比例(ψ_y)的月变化，并结合雌鼠繁殖力(f_a)和新生幼体生长为亚成体的概率(ψ_nb，通常新生幼体生长发育取决于母体存活，故用s_a数值代替)参数构建具有(年龄)阶段结构的种群增长矩阵模型，首先通过敏感性(S_ij)分析分别评估相关参数对种群增长(λ)变化的影响程度和参数效应的相对贡献大小。结果显示，在繁殖期，种群月增长变化对ψ_y的敏感性(S_ψy=1.295 ±0.289)最大，显著高于其他参数(F_4,25=12.16,P<0.001)；对亚成体(S_sy=0.400 ±0.044)和成体存活率(S_sa=0.462 ±0.052)的敏感性次之；对成年雌鼠繁殖力变化的敏感性仅在越冬及越冬后的繁殖初期(10月至翌年3月)较为突出(S_fa=0.651)。进一步通过弹性(e_ij)分析发现，存活对各月种群增长变化影响的弹性系数(e_sa+ψnb+sy)平均为0.761 ±0.033，显著高于生长发育(e_ψy)和繁殖(e_fa)参数的影响贡献(F_2,21=247.4,P<0.001)。这些结果表明，虽然种群增长率变化对ψ_y更敏感，但ψ_y与f_a对种群增长率变化的影响比例始终低于存活参数，存活效应可以解释种群增长率76%以上的变化。不过，生长发育和繁殖对繁殖初期种群增长贡献较其他时期突出(e_ψy+e_fa=0.30 ±0.02)，效应占比为30%。由此可见，成体的存活在繁殖中后期对长爪沙鼠种群增长(λ)的影响最大；亚成体存活和性成熟率在贮食越冬期，雌鼠繁殖力在翌年春季繁殖初期对种群增长(λ)的影响较为突出。因此，降低沙鼠全年存活率、控制繁殖初期雌鼠繁殖力以及繁殖后期亚成体性成熟的相关管理措施，可在持续控制沙鼠种群增长上产生最佳效果。

关键词： 摄动分析; 年龄阶段矩阵; 种群参数; 种群增长率; 鼠害管理

本文引用格式

刘伟 , 杨鑫智 , 杨忠 , 韵树田 , 宋利彪 , 钟文勤 , 王德华 . 长爪沙鼠种群参数的敏感性和弹性分析及应用评价[J]. 兽类学报, 2023 , 43(4) : 387 -397 . DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150792

Abstract

Sensitivity and elasticity analyses are part of perturbation analyses that aim to quantify the effect of absolute and proportional change in variables related to population growth rate (λ). The Mongolian gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus) is one of the dominant rodents widely distributed in semi-arid, typical steppes, and desert grasslands in north China. It exhibits temporal scale demography variation and even extensive numerical outbreaks. To better understand the consequence of monthly demographic structure, based on the data from population dynamics of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) of female gerbils under semi-natural conditions from October 2000 to 2004 in agro-pastoral ecotone of south-central Inner Mongolia, China, we used statistical multistate models (MS) in MARK software to estimate the following demographic variables: apparent survival probability of sub-adults (s_y) and adults (s_a), the transition and maturation rate from the sub-adult stage to the adult stage (ψ_y), and survival and transition from newly born to sub-adult (ψ_nb), which is assumed to be fully dependent on the mother’s survival (s_a). We also calculated the monthly female fecundity (f_a), which is the recruitment of female pups per reproducing adult female. Then we investigate the effects of various demographic variables on monthly population growth rate (λ) with sensitivity and elasticity analyses using the stage-structured (i. e. Lefkovitch) matrix model constructed by the above demographic variables. Our results showed that the sensitivity of λ to ψ_y change is the highest (S_ψy = 1. 295 ± 0. 289) during the breeding period (before September), followed by s_y (with S_sy = 0. 400 ± 0. 044), and s_a (with S_sa = 0. 462 ± 0. 052). The effect of absolute change in f_a on λ was more prominent only during overwintering and the early breeding period after overwintering (October to March). Through elastic analysis, we found that the effect of proportional change (elasticity, e_ij) in survival parameters on population growth rate (λ) was on average high (76. 1 ± 3. 3%), in which the elasticity of sub-adult survival in autumn feeding period (September to October) played a decisive role in population growth (accounting for 90. 6%). The average elasticity coefficient of the growth and development (e_ψy) and reproduction (e_fa) to population change was 0. 30 ± 0. 02 (that is, the contribution ratio is 30%). Overall, s_a had the greatest influence on λ during the middle and late breeding period, while the survival and sexual maturity rate of sub-adults and female fertility impacted on population growth rate (λ) more prominently during the overwinter or the early breeding period in the following spring. Consequently, management efforts that aim at decreasing the survival rate of gerbils throughout the year, as well as controlling the reproductive capacity of female gerbils from August to March, are likely to yield the best results with regard to reducing the growth rate of Mongolian gerbils.

Key words： Perturbation analysis; Stage-structured matrix model; Demographic variables; Population growth rate; Pest management

参考文献

Anderson D R, Burnham K P. 1999. Understanding information criterion for selection among capture-recapture or ring recovery models. Bird Study, 46:14-21.
Anderson E, Bai Z, Bischof C, Blackford S, Demmel J, Dongarra J, Du Croz J, Greenbaum A, Hammarling S, McKenney A, Sorensen D. 1999. LAPACK Users'Guide. 3rd ed. SIAM. Available on-line at https://www.netlib.org/lapack/lug/lapack_lug.html.
Berryman A A. 1999. Principles of Population Dynamics and Their Application. Cheltenham UK:Stanley Thrones.
Caswell H, Takada T. 2004. Elasticity analysis of density-dependent matrix population models:the invasion exponent and its substitutes. Theoretical Population Biology, 65 (4):401-411.
Caswell H. 2001. Matrix Population Models:Construction, Analysis and Interpretation. 2nd ed. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Masssachusetts.
Chen L J, Wang G M, Wan X R, Liu W. 2015. Complex and nonlinear effects of weather and density on the demography of small herbivorous mammals. Basic Applied Ecology, 16:172-179.
Cooch E, White G. 2007. Program MARK "A Gentle Introduction". 6th ed. http://www.phidot.org/software/mark/docs/book/.
de Kroon H, van Groenendael J, Ehrlén J. 2000. Elasticities:a review of methods and model limitations. Ecology, 81:607-618.
Dobson F S, Oli M K. 2007. Fast and slow life histories of rodents.In:Wolff J O, Sherman P W eds. Rodent Societies:An Ecological and Evolutionary Perspective. Chicago, USA:The University of Chicago Press, 99-105.
Giaimo S, Traulsen A. 2022. Age-specific sensitivity analysis of stable, stochastic and transient growth for stage-classified populations. Ecology and Evolution, 12:e9561. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9561
Jonrgenson J T, Festa-Bianchet M, Gaillard J M, Wishart W D. 1997.Effects of age, sex, dispersal, and desity on survival of Bighorn Sheep. Ecology, 78 (4):1019-1032.
Lebreton J D, Burnham K P, Clobert J, Anderson D R. 1992. Modeling survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked animals:a unified approach with case studies. Ecological Monographs, 62:67-118.
Lima M, Stenseth N C, Leirs H, Jaksic F M. 2003. Population dynamics of small mammals in semi-arid regions:a comparative study of demographic variability in two rodent species. Proceeding Royal Society Lond B, 270:1997-2007.
Liu M, Ren D S, Wan X R, Sheng X N, Zhao C Y, Xingan, Wang Y, Bu F, Liu W, Zhang Z B, Gao Y L, Si X Y, Bai D F, Yuan S, Zheng F, Wan X R, Fu H P, Wu X D, Zheng A H, Liu Q Y, Zhang Z B. 2022. Synergistic effects of EP-1 and ivermectin mixture (iEP-1) to control rodents and theirectoparasites. Pest Management Science, 2022:e7226. DOI:10. 1002/ps. 7226
Liu W, Deng K. 2022. Population dynamics of wild mongolian gerbils:quadratic temperature effects on survival and densitydependent effects on recruitment. Diversity, 14:586. DOI:10. 3390/d14080586
Liu W, Wan X R, Wang G H, Liu W D, Zhong W Q. 2004. Reproductive pattern of cohort and its adaptation in life history of Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus). Acta Theriologica Sinica, 24 (3):229-234. (in Chinese)
Liu W, Wan X R, Zhong W Q, Wang J Q. 2013. Characteristics of seasonal reproduction in Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus). Acta Theriologica Sinica, 33 (1):35-46. (in Chinese)
Liu W, Wan X, Zhong W. 2007. Population dynamics of the Mongolian gerbils:Seasonal patterns and interactions among density, reproduction and climate. Jouranl Arid Environment, 68:383-397.
Liu W, Zhong W Q, Wan X R. 2017. Sex - and cohort-specific life-history strategies in Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus). Journal of Arid Environments, 146:18-26.
Liu W, Zhong W Q, Wan X R, Wang J Q. 2017. Ecologically-based rodent management in the agro-pastoral ecotone of North China:a case study in Mongolian gerbils. Acta Theriologica Sinica, 37(3):308-316. (in Chinese)
Liu W, Zhong W Q, Wang D H. 2020. Seasonal dynamic of population survival and its mechanism in Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus) in the Inner Mongolia agro-pastoral ecotone. Acta Theriologica Sinica, 40 (6):571-584. (in Chinese)
Liu W, Zhong W Q, Wan X R, Wang G H, Jiang Y Q, Liu W D. 2001.The behavioral characteristics of mongolian gerbils meriones unguiculatus and the ecological strategies of controlling during autumn harvest. Acta Theriologica Sinica, 21 (2):108-115. (in Chinese)
Manlik O, Lacy R C, Sherwin W B. 2018. Applicability and limitations of sensitivity analyses for wildlife management. The Journal of Applied Ecology, 55 (3):1430-1440.
Merritt J F, Lima M, Bozinovic F. 2001. Seasonal regulation in fluctuating small mammal population:feedback structure and climate. Oikos, 59:576-598.
Montshiwa M I. 2007. Leslie Matrix model in population dynamics.African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS).
Nemati A, Riahi E, Houshmand S. 2020. Sensitivity and elasticity analysis of Tetranychus urticae Koch population parameters:consequences for pest management. Systematic and Applied Acarology, 25 (2):268-284.
Nichols J D, Hines J A, Lebreton J D, Pradel R. 2000. The relative contributions of demographic components to population growth:A direct estimation approach based on reverse-time capture recapture. Ecology, 81:3362-3376.
Oli M K, Dobson F S. 1999. Population cycles in small mammals:the role of age at sexual maturity. Oikos, 86:557-568.
Oli M K, Dobson F S. 2003. The relative importance of life-history variables to population growth rate in mammals:cole's prediction revisited. The American Naturalist, 161:422-440.
Oli M K, Zinner B. 2001. Partial life cycle analysis:a model for birth-pulse populations. Ecology, 82:1180-1190.
Piank E R. 1983. Evolutionary Ecology. 3rd ed. New York:Harper and Eow.
Prévot-Julliard A C, Hentonen H, Yoccoz N G, Stenseth N C. 1999. Delayed maturation in female bank voles:optimal decision or social constrain? Journal Animal Ecology, 68:684-697.
Shi D Z, Wan X R, Davis S A, Pech R P, Zhang Z B. 2002. Simulation of lethal control and fertility control in a demographic model for Brandt's vole Microtus brandti. Journal of Applied Ecology, 39:337-348.
Singleton G R, Hinds L, Herwig L, Zhang Z B. 1999. EcologicallyBased Rodent Management. Canberra:ACIAR Stearns S C. 1992. The Evolution of Life Histories. Oxford:Oxford University Press.
Stenseth N C, Viljugrein H, Saitoh T, Hansen T F, Kittilsen M O, Bolviken E, Glockner F. 2003. Seasonality, density dependence, and population cycles in Hokkaido voles. PNAS, 100 (20):11478-11483.
Stenseth N C. 1999. Population cycles in voles and lemmings:density-dependence and phase dependence in a stochastic word. Oikos, 87:427-461.
Sun R Y. 2017. Principles of Animal Ecology. 3rd ed. Beijing:Beijing Normal Universtiy Publishing Group, 193-197. (in Chinese)
Tuljapurkar S, Caswell H. 1997. Structured-Population Models in Marine, Terrestrial and Freshwater Systems. New York:Chapman & Hall.
Wang G, Zhong W Q. 2006. Mongolian gerbils and Daurian pikas responded differently to changes in precipitation in the Inner Mongolian grasslands. Journal Arid Environments, 66:648-656.
Wang M J, Zhong W Q. 1998. Ecology and management of Mongolian gerbils. In:Zhang Z B, Wang Z W eds. Ecology and Management of Rodent Pests in Agriculture. Beijing:Ocean Publishing Inc., 221-238. (in Chinese)
White G C, Burnham K P. 1999. Program MARK:survival estimation from populations of marked animals. Bird Study, 46:120-139.
White G C, Burnham K P. 2017. Program Mark (version 8. 1). http://www.phidot.org/software/mark/or http://www.cnr.colostate.edu/~gwhite/mark/mark.htm
White G C, Kendall W L, Barker R J. 2006. Multistate survival models and their extensions in Program Mark. Journal Wildlife Management, 70:1521-1529.
Xia W P, Liao C H, Zhong W Q, Sun C L, Tian Y. 1982. On the population dynamics and regulation of Meriones unguiculatus in agricultural region north to Yin Mountains, Inner Mongolia. Acta Theriologica Sinica, 2 (1):51-71. (in Chinese)
Zhong W Q, Zhou Q Q, Sun C L. 1985. The basic characteristics of the rodent pests on the pasture in Inner Mongolia and its ecological strategies of controlling. Acta Theriologica Sinica, 5 (4):241-249. (in Chinese)
王梦军, 钟文勤. 1998. 长爪沙鼠的生态学及控制对策. 见:张知彬, 王祖望主编. 农业重要害鼠的生态学及控制对策. 北京:海洋出版社, 221-238.
刘伟, 钟文勤, 宛新荣, 王广和, 姜雅琴, 刘文东. 2001. 长爪沙鼠在作物秋收期的行为适应特征及其生态治理对策. 兽类学报, 21(2):108-115.
刘伟, 宛新荣, 王广和, 刘文东, 钟文勤. 2004. 不同季节长爪沙鼠同生群的繁殖特征及其在生活史对策中的意义. 兽类学报, 24(3):229-234.
刘伟, 宛新荣, 钟文勤, 王建青. 2013. 长爪沙鼠种群繁殖的季节性特征. 兽类学报, 33 (1):35-46.
刘伟, 钟文勤, 宛新荣, 王建青. 2017. 北方农牧交错带鼠害生态治理对策:以长爪沙鼠为例. 兽类学报, 37 (3):308-316.
刘伟, 钟文勤, 王德华. 2020. 内蒙古农牧交错带长爪沙鼠种群存活的季节格局及其动态机制. 兽类学报, 40 (6):571-584.
孙儒泳. 2017. 动物生态学原理. 第三版. 北京:北京师范大学出版社, 193-197.
钟文勤, 周庆强, 孙崇潞. 1985. 内蒙古草场鼠害的基本特征及其生态对策. 兽类学报, 5 (4):241-249.
夏武平, 廖崇惠, 钟文勤, 孙崇潞, 田云. 1982. 内蒙古阴山北部农业区长爪沙鼠的种群动态及其调节研究. 兽类学报, 2 (1):51-71.

Options

文章导航

模态框（Modal）标题

摘要

本文引用格式

Abstract

参考文献