气候变化背景下卡拉麦里国家公园蒙古野驴适宜生境脆弱性评价

高帅帅; 胡杨; 邵长亮; 蒋丽伟; 张于光; 苏志珠; 吴波; 李佳

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150846

兽类学报 >

2024 , Vol. 44 >Issue 3: 287 - 296

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16829/j.slxb.150846

研究论文

气候变化背景下卡拉麦里国家公园蒙古野驴适宜生境脆弱性评价

高帅帅 ,
胡杨 ,
邵长亮 ,
蒋丽伟 ,
张于光 ,
苏志珠 ,
吴波 ,
李佳

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1 中国林业科学研究院生态保护与修复研究所, 北京 100091;
2 山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原 030006;
3 新疆林业学校, 乌鲁木齐 830026;
4 新疆卡拉麦里山有蹄类野生动物自然保护区管理中心, 昌吉 831100;
5 国家林业和草原局林草调查规划院, 北京 100714;
6 中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所, 北京 100091;
7 山西大学历史文化学院, 太原 030006

高帅帅(2000-)，男，硕士，主要从事气候变化与生物多样性保护研究.

收稿日期: 2023-09-10

修回日期: 2023-12-05

网络出版日期: 2024-05-31

基金资助

第三次新疆综合科学考察项目 (2021xjkk12003)；荒漠区生物多样性综合考察 (2019FY102002)

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Vulnerability assessment of suitable habitats for Equus hemionus in the Kalamaili National Park under climate change

GAO Shuaishuai ,
HU Yang ,
SHAO Changliang ,
JIANG Liwei ,
ZHANG Yuguang ,
SU Zhizhu ,
WU Bo ,
LI Jia

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1 Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China;
2 College of Environment and Resources, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China;
3 Xinjiang Forestry School, Urumqi 830026, China;
4 Management Center of Xinjiang Kalamaili Mountain Ungulate Nature Reserve, Changji 831100, China;
5 Academy of Forestry Inventory and Planning, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100714, China;
6 Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China;
7 School of History and Culture, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China

Received date: 2023-09-10

Revised date: 2023-12-05

Online published: 2024-05-31

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摘要

评估气候变化背景下蒙古野驴 (Equus hemionus) 适宜生境脆弱程度，是卡拉麦里国家公园制定适应性保护对策的关键和基础。本文筛选 207 个蒙古野驴分布点位以及 9 个环境变量，在 BIOMOD2 平台上利用其 10 种物种分布模型评估当前和未来 2050s (2041—2070 年)、2080s (2071—2100 年) 气候变化背景下蒙古野驴适宜生境脆弱程度。结果表明：(1) 在 BIOMOD2 平台的 10 种模型中，随机森林 (RF) 模拟效果最好，表面分布区分室模型(SRE) 评分最低；组合模型的真实技巧统计值 (TSS) 为 0. 939，受试者工作特征曲线下面积 (AUC) 为 0. 996，表明平台模拟结果相对可靠；(2) 年平均气温和最冷季平均气温是影响蒙古野驴适宜生境分布的主要因素；(3) 蒙古野驴当前适宜生境主要分布在卡拉麦里国家公园的北部和中部，以及 216 国道两侧；到 2080s (SSP370)，主要分布在国家公园东部，适宜生境面积较当前减少 68. 8%。本研究利用 BIOMOD2 平台提供的组合模型的模拟结果，分析气候变化背景下蒙古野驴适宜生境的动态变化，计算卡拉麦里国家公园在当前和未来气候变化背景下蒙古野驴适宜栖息地的覆盖程度，为国家公园保护蒙古野驴提供适应性保护对策。

关键词： 濒危物种; BIOMOD2; 脆弱性评价; 保护对策; 气候庇护所

本文引用格式

高帅帅 , 胡杨 , 邵长亮 , 蒋丽伟 , 张于光 , 苏志珠 , 吴波 , 李佳 . 气候变化背景下卡拉麦里国家公园蒙古野驴适宜生境脆弱性评价[J]. 兽类学报, 2024 , 44(3) : 287 -296 . DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150846

Abstract

Assessing Mongolian wild ass (Equus hemionus) vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats in the Kalamaili National Park. In this paper, a total of 207 Mongolian wild ass occurrence records and nine variables as model parameters were conducted on the BIOMOD2 platform to assess the vulnerability of suitable Mongolian wild ass habitat under current and future 2050s (2041-2071), 2080s (2071-2100) climatic scenario. The result revealed that out of the 10 BIOMOD2 platform models, the random forest (RF) simulation performed the best and the surface distribution differentiation chamber (SRE) model performed the worst. The true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the subject working characteristic curve (AUC) of the combined model were 0. 939 and 0. 996, respectively, indicating that its simulation results for the current distribution of Mongolian wild ass were reliable. Annual mean temperature and mean temperature of coldest quarter are the dominant factors affecting the distribution of Mongolian wild ass. Suitable habitats for Mongolian wild ass were mainly distributed in the northern, central, and eastern parts of the Kalamaili National Park on both sides of National Highway 216. Under the background of future climate change, the suitable habitat area of Mongolian wild ass will be further reduced by 2080s (SSP370), suitable habitat will be mainly located in the eastern part of the national park and decreased by 68. 8% compared with the current period. In this study, we use simulation results from the combination model provided by the BIOMOD2 platform to analyze the dynamic changes in suitable habitats for Mongolian wild ass under different climatic conditions, to provide a benchmark for biodiversity conservation under climate change, and to assess further the effectiveness of climate change conservation in the Kalamaili National Park and propose an adaptive conservation plan.

Key words： Endangered species; BIOMOD2; Vulnerability assessment; Conservation strategies; Climate refuge

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