气候变化背景下三江源国家公园四种野生有蹄类动物栖息地适宜性分析

王子涵; 王东; 侯陆一; 李全邦; 李其琴; 魏海娟; 连新明

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150963

兽类学报 >

2025 , Vol. 45 >Issue 5: 602 - 614

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16829/j.slxb.150963

研究论文

气候变化背景下三江源国家公园四种野生有蹄类动物栖息地适宜性分析

王子涵 ,
王东 ,
侯陆一 ,
李全邦 ,
李其琴 ,
魏海娟 ,
连新明

展开

1 中国科学院西北高原生物研究所, 高原生物适应与进化重点实验室, 西宁 810008;
2 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
3 青海师范大学地理科学学院, 西宁 810016;
4 烟台大学生命科学学院, 烟台 264006;
5 西藏自治区生态环境遥感监测中心, 拉萨 850000;
6 青海省动物生态基因组学重点实验室, 西宁 810008

王子涵(1997-)，女，硕士，主要从事保护生物学研究.

收稿日期: 2024-05-29

录用日期: 2024-10-16

网络出版日期: 2025-09-26

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF1305000)；青海省自然科学与工程技术学科带头人专项资金

收起

Habitat suitability analysis for four wild ungulates in Sanjiangyuan National Park under different climate change scenarios

WANG Zihan ,
WANG Dong ,
HOU Luyi ,
LI Quanbang ,
LI Qiqin ,
WEI Haijuan ,
LIAN Xinming

Expand

1 Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008, China;
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3 School of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810016, China;
4 School of Life Sciences, Yantai University, Yantai 264006, China;
5 Xizang Autonomous Region Remote Sensing Monitoring Center for Ecological Environment, Lhasa 850000, China;
6 Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Ecological Genomics, Xining 810008, China

Received date: 2024-05-29

Accepted date: 2024-10-16

Online published: 2025-09-26

Fold

摘要

气候变化和人类活动直接或间接影响物种的分布和丰富度，这一影响在青藏高原地区尤为明显。野生有蹄类动物是生态系统中的关键组成部分，其栖息地和生存状况对生态系统的平衡和稳定起到决定性作用。预测气候变化对分布范围的影响可为野生有蹄类动物的保护与关键区域的栖息地修复提供科学基础和参考依据。本研究针对三江源国家公园内藏原羚 (Procapra picticaudata)、藏羚 (Pantholops hodgsonii)、藏野驴 (Equus kiang) 和野牦牛 (Bos mutus) 4 种野生有蹄类动物，利用 MaxEnt 模型与 ArcGIS 软件分析 4 个物种的潜在地理分布，继而预测2050s 和 2070s 两个未来时期低浓度 (SSP126) 和高浓度 (SSP585) 两种碳排放情景下其栖息地变化。研究结果显示，三江源国家公园内藏原羚的适宜栖息地面积占国家公园总面积的 52.22%，而藏羚、藏野驴和野牦牛的相应比例依次为 13.71%、19.23% 和 9.22%。4 个物种的分布受到多重变量的影响。其中，降水量相关变量对藏原羚和藏羚选择栖息地有着显著影响，同时藏羚对人类活动表现出一定的适应性。面对未来气候变化，4 种野生有蹄类动物的适宜栖息地都有减少的趋势，其中藏羚在碳排放浓度最高的气候情景下将面临最大的适宜栖息地面积丧失。此外，4 种野生有蹄类动物都倾向转移至高纬度地区。尽管当前 4 种有蹄类动物的大部分栖息地已经包含在三江源国家公园范围内，但仍需要针对不同物种制定个性化的保护和管理策略，对于已经或可能受损的栖息地，应积极开展植被恢复等措施以提升生态环境质量，为这些野生有蹄类动物提供更加适宜的生存空间。

关键词： 三江源国家公园; 藏原羚; 藏羚; 藏野驴; 野牦牛; 栖息地适宜性

本文引用格式

王子涵 , 王东 , 侯陆一 , 李全邦 , 李其琴 , 魏海娟 , 连新明 . 气候变化背景下三江源国家公园四种野生有蹄类动物栖息地适宜性分析[J]. 兽类学报, 2025 , 45(5) : 602 -614 . DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150963

Abstract

Climate change and human activities have direct or indirect impacts on the distribution and abundance of species, particularly on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Wild ungulates are vital components of the ecosystem, with their habitat and living conditions playing a decisive role in maintaining ecological balance and stability. Predicting the effects of climate change on their distribution range can provide a scientific basis and reference for the conservation of wild ungulates and habitat restoration in key areas. This study specifically focuses on four species of wild ungulates in Sanjiangyuan National Park, Tibetan gazelle (Procapra picticaudata), Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii), kiang (Equus kiang), and wild yak (Bos mutus). By utilizing the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, we conducted an analysis to determine the potential geographical distribution of these four species. Subsequently, we predicted dynamic changes in their habitat suitability and geographical range under two scenarios: low and high carbon emissions for the 2050s and 2070s. The findings revealed that the suitable habitat area for Tibetan gazelle accounted for 52. 22% of the total park area, while corresponding proportions for Tibetan antelope, kiang, and wild yak were 13. 71%, 19. 23%, and 9. 22% respectively. Multiple variables influenced the distribution of these four species. Notably, precipitation-related factors significantly impacted habitat selection by Tibetan gazelle and antelope populations and the antelope demonstrated some adaptability to human activities as well. In the face of future climate change, all four wild ungulates are experiencing a decline in suitable habitats, with the Tibetan antelope being particularly affected by the highest carbon emission concentration scenario. Furthermore, there is a noticeable trend among these species to migrate towards higher latitudes. Although the Sanjiangyuan National Park has encompassed most of the habitats for the four ungulate species, it remains essential to develop tailored protection and management strategies for each species. Specifically, proactive measures such as vegetation restoration should be implemented in habitats that have been or may become damaged to enhance the ecological environment’s quality and provide a more suitable living space for these wild ungulates.

Key words： Sanjiangyuan National Park; Tibetan gazelle; Tibetan antelope; Kiang; Wild Yak; Habitat suitability

参考文献

Abrahms B, Carter N H, Clark-Wolf T, Gaynor K M, Johansson E, McInturff A, Nisi A C, Rafiq K, West L. 2023. Climate change as a global amplifier of human-wildlife conflict[J]. Nature Climate Change, 13 (3):224-234.
Beale C M, Lennon J J, Elston D A, Brewer M J, Yearsley J M. 2007. Red herrings remain in geographical ecology:a reply to Hawkins et al[J]. Ecography, 30 (6):845-847.
Billman P D, Beever E A, McWethy D B, Thurman L L, Wilson K C. 2021. Factors influencing distributional shifts and abundance at the range core of a climate-sensitive mammal[J]. Global Change Biology, 27 (19):4498-4515.
Brown J L, Bennett J R, French C M. 2017. SDMtoolbox 2. 0:the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses[J]. PeerJ, 5:4095. DOI:10. 7717/peerj. 4095.
Cai Z Y, Qin W, Gao H M, Wu T, Chi X W, Yang J D, Miao Z Y, Zhang J J, Song P F, Lian X M, Su J P, Zhang T Z. 2019. Species diversity and fa a of mammals in Sanjiangyuan National Park[J]. Acta Theriologica Sinica, 39 (4):410-420. (in Chinese)
Cao Y, Yue X, Liao H, Yang Y, Zhu J, Chen L, Tian C G, Lei Y D, Zhou H, Ma Y M. 2021. Ensemble projection of global isoprene emissions by the end of 21st century using CMIP6 models[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 267:118766. DOI:10. 1016/j. atmosenv. 2021. 118766.
Cao Y F, Zhang T Z, Lian X M, Cui Q H, Deng D D, Su J P. 2009. Diet overlap among selected ungulates in Kekexili Region,Qinghai Province[J]. Sichuan Journal of Zoology, 28 (1):49-54. (in Chinese)
Chen I C, Hill J K, Ohlemüller R, Roy D B, Thomas C D. 2011. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming[J]. Science, 333 (6045):1024-1026.
Cobos M E, Peterson A T, Barve N, Osorio-Olvera L. 2019. kuenm:an R package for detailed development of ecological niche models using Maxent[J]. PeerJ, 7:6281. DOI:10. 7717/peerj. 6281.
Cong M, Xu Y, Tang L, Yang W, Jian M. 2020. Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period[J]. PLoS ONE, 15 (4):0230969. DOI:10. 1371/journal. pone. 0230969.
Dormann C F, Elith J, Bacher S, Buchmann C, Carl G, Carré G, Marquéz J R G, Gruber B, Lafourcade B, Leitão P J. 2013. Collinearity:a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance[J]. Ecography, 36 (1):27-46.
Frid A, Dill L. 2002. Human-caused disturbance stimuli as a form of predation risk[J]. Conservation Ecology, 6 (1):1-16.
Gao Y, Yang S H, Cui L W, Wang H H, Xiao W, Huang Z P. 2018. Behavioral responses of Rhinopithecus bieti to different human disturbance at Mt. Longmashan, Yunnan[J]. Journal of Dali University, 4 (6):53-57. (in Chinese)
Gurarie E, Hebblewhite M, Joly K, Kelly A P, Adamczewski J, Davidson S C, Davison T, Gunn A, Suitor M J, Fagan W F. 2019. Tactical departures and strategic arrivals:Divergent effects of climate and weather on caribou spring migrations[J]. Ecosphere, 10 (12):e02971. DOI:10. 1002/ecs2. 2971.
Huan Z Q, Geng X M, Xu X R, Liu W, Zhu Z L, Tang M. 2023. Potential geographical distribution of Michelia marinii under different climate change scenarios based on MaxEnt model[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 39 (10):1277-1287. (in Chinese)
Huang Q D Z, Chen L Y, Li S P, Sun Z Y, Yang M X, Zhang D X, Li C X, Mao R R, Li Z Y, Zhang L X. 2021. Effects of roads on the abundance and habitat of Tibetan wild ass and Tibetan gazelle in the Yellow River Source Zone of Sanjiangyuan National Park[J]. Acta Theriologica Sinica, 42 (1):34-48. (in Chinese)
Hosmer Jr D W, Lemeshow S, Sturdivant R X. 2013. Applied Logistic Regression. 3rd ed edition[M]. Hoboken:Wiley.
Jiang Z G, Li L L, Hu Y M, Hu H J, Li C W, Ping X G. 2018. Diversity and endemism of ungulates on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau:evolution and conservation[J]. Biodiversity Science, 26 (2):158-170. (in Chinese)
Jing X, Jiang S J, Liu H Y, Li Y, He J S. 2022. Complex relationships and feed back mechanisms between climate changeand biodiversity[J]. Biodiversity Science, 30 (10):293-311. (in Chinese)
Kelly A E, Goulden M L. 2008. Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105 (33):11823-11826.
Lian X M, Li X X, Xu T. 2012. Avoidance distances of four ungulates from roads in Kekexili and related protection suggestions[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 31 (1):81-86. (in Chinese)
Liang J, Ding Z, Jiang Z, Yang X, Xiao R, Singh P B, Hu Y, Guo K, Zhang Z, Hu H. 2021. Climate change, habitat connectivity, and conservation gaps:a case study of four ungulate species endemic to the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Landscape Ecology, 36:1071-1087.
Lobo J M, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R. 2008. AUC:a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models[J]. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17 (2):145-151.
Lu Q B, Wang X M, Wang Z H. 2004. Feeding behavior of Tibetan gazelle in Shiqu County of Sichuan Province during autumn[J]. Zoological Research, 25 (6):469-476. (in Chinese)
Luo Z, Jiang Z, Tang S. 2015. Impacts of climate change on distributions and diversity of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Ecological Applications, 25 (1):24-38.
Newbold T, Hudson L N, Hill S L, Contu S, Lysenko I, Senior R A, Börger L, Bennett D J, Choimes A, Collen B. 2015. Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity[J]. Nature, 520(7545):45-50.
Pearson R G, Dawson T P. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species:are bioclimate envelope models useful?[J]. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12 (5):361-371.
Peeters B, Le Moullec M, Raeymaekers J A, Marquez J F, Røed K H, Pedersen Å Ø, Veiberg V, Loe L E, Hansen B B. 2020. Sea ice loss increases genetic isolation in a high Arctic ungulate metapopulation[J]. Global Change Biology, 26 (4):2028-2041.
Pei P Z, Tian R X, Wang L, Li H L, Bao X K. 2023. Habitat suitability assessment and landscape feature analysis of Przewalski's horse in Anxi Extreme-arid Desert National Nature Reserve, Gansu[J]. Chinese Journal of Wildlife, 44 (3):494-505. (in Chinese)
Schloss C A, Nuñez T A, Lawler J J. 2012. Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (22):8606-8611.
Songer M, Delion M, Biggs A, Huang Q. 2012. Modeling impacts of climate change on giant panda habitat[J]. International Journal of Ecology, 2012 (1):1-12.
Steven J P, Robert P A, Miroslav D, Robert E S, Mary E B. 2017. Opening the black box:an open-source release of Maxent[J]. Ecography, 40 (7):887-893.
Su X, Han W, Liu G, Zhang Y, Lu H. 2019. Substantial gaps between the protection of biodiversity hotspots in alpine grasslands and the effectiveness of protected areas on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 278:15-23.
Sun C H, Zuo J Q, Shi X H, Liu X W, Liu H W. 2021. Diverse inter-annual variations of winter Siberian high and link with Eurasian snow in observation and BCC-CSM2-MR coupled model simulation[J]. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9:761311. DOI:10. 3389/feart. 2021. 761311.
Tao F, Zhang Z. 2010. Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems structure and function to climate change in China[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Biogeosciences, 115:G03003. DOI:10. 1029/2009JG001062.
Thompson P L, Rayfield B, Gonzalez A. 2017. Loss of habitat and connectivity erodes species diversity, ecosystem functioning, and stability in metacommunity networks[J]. Ecography, 40:98-108.
Wen J, Zhang S X, Yang X Y, Qin R M, Xu M H. 2019. Species diversity in alpine meadow of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau:altitudinal gradient pattern and its response to simulated warming[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 9 (4):66-73. (in Chinese)
Wolf C, Ripple W J. 2016. Prey depletion as a threat to the world's large carnivores[J]. Royal Society Open Science, 3 (8):160252.DOI:10. 1098/rsos. 160252.
Wu Y, Dong S K, Zhang X F, Liu Y H, Shi J B, Zhang X, Su S K, Wang X X, Li Y Y. 2014. Summer habitat selection of the ungulates Equus kiang and Bos qrunniens in Altun Mountain Reserve[J]. Chinese Journal of Zoology, 49 (3):317-327. (in Chinese)
Xu Y, Huang Y, Zhao H, Yang M, Zhuang Y, Ye X. 2021. Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China[J]. Forests, 12 (4):429-432.
Ye X L, Guo K J, Li X R, Wu Q, Zhang M F, Li M, Zhao X M. 2023. Climate change results in imbalance population growth and change insuitable habitat for red deer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau:a case study in the Leiwugi National Nature Reserve[J]. Acta Theriologica Sinica, 43 (2):149-156. (in Chinese)
Yin B F, Yu Z Y, Yang S M, Huai H Y, Zhang Y L, Wei W H. 2007. Effects of Qinghai-Tibetan highway on the activities of Pantholops hodgsoni, Procapra picticaudata and Equus kiang[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 27 (6):810-816. (in Chinese)
Zeng X M, Yang Y, Gong C R, Yang D D, Li A J. 2023. Evaluation of habitat suitability and dynamic trend of Equus kiang and Procapra picticaudata in the Three-River-Source Region[J]. Sichuan Journal of Zoology, 42 (4):371-380. (in Chinese)
Zhang J, Jiang F, Li G, Qin W, Wu T, Xu F, Hou Y, Song P, Cai Z, Zhang T. 2021. The four antelope species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau face habitat loss and redistribution to higher latitudes under climate change[J]. Ecological Indicators, 123:107337.DOI:10. 1016/j. ecolind. 2021. 107337.
Zhang Q G, Zhang D Y. 2003. Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning:recent advances and trends[J]. Biodiversity Science, 11 (5):351-363. (in Chinese)
Zhao H F, Cao X Y. 2022. Vegetation cover changes and its climate driving in Three-River-Source National Park[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 41 (2):328-337. (in Chinese)
Zhao X Q, Xu S X, Zhao L, Zhang T Z, Hu L Y, Li Q, Guo T Q. 2023. Innovation and practice on biodiversity conservation in Sanjiangyuan National Park[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 38 (12):1833-1844. (in Chinese)
Zhao Y, Deng X W, Xiang W H, Chen L, Ouyang S A. 2021. Predicting potential suitable habitats of Chinese fir under current and future climatic scenarios based on Maxent model[J]. Ecological Informatics, 64:101393. DOI:10. 1016/j. ecoinf. 2021. 101393.
Zhong M, Shi H, An S Q, Leng X, Li N. 2016. The studies of wildlife habitat suitability assessment and habitat fragmentation in China[J]. Ecological Science, 35 (4):205-209. (in Chinese)
井新, 蒋胜竞, 刘慧颖, 李昱, 贺金生. 2022. 气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制[J]. 生物多样性, 30 (10):293-311.
连新明, 李晓晓, 徐图. 2012. 可可西里四种有蹄类动物对道路的回避距离及保护建议[J]. 生态学杂志, 31 (1):81-86.
吴娱, 董世魁, 张相锋, 刘颖慧, 石建斌, 张翔, 苏旭坤, 王学霞, 李媛媛. 2014. 阿尔金山保护区藏野驴和野牦牛夏季生境选择分析[J]. 动物学杂志, 49 (3):317-327.
张全国, 张大勇. 2003. 生物多样性与生态系统功能:最新的进展与动向[J]. 生物多样性, 11 (5):351-363.
宦智群, 耿兴敏, 徐小蓉, 刘维, 祝遵凌, 唐明. 2023. 基于 MaxEnt 模型分析不同气候变化情景下的黄心夜合 (Miche marin) 潜在地理分布[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 39 (10):1277-1287.
赵新全, 徐世晓, 赵亮, 张同作, 胡林勇, 李奇, 郭同庆. 2023. 三江源国家公园生物多样性保护创新及实践[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 38(12):1833-1844.
赵慧芳, 曹晓云. 2022. 三江源国家公园植被覆盖时空变化及其气候驱动因素[J]. 高原气象, 41 (2):328-337.
钟明, 侍昊, 安树青, 冷欣, 李宁. 2016. 中国野生动物生境适宜性评价和生境破碎化研究[J]. 生态科学, 35 (4):205-209.
殷宝法, 于智勇, 杨生妹, 淮虎银, 张镱锂, 魏万红. 2007. 青藏公路对藏羚羊、藏原羚和藏野驴活动的影响[J]. 生态学杂志, 18(4):766-770.
高颖, 杨树国, 崔亮伟, 王浩瀚, 肖文, 黄志旁. 2019. 云南龙马山黑白仰鼻猴 (Rhinopithecus bieti) 对人为干扰的响应研究[J]. 大理大学学报, 4 (6):53-57.
曹伊凡, 张同作, 连新明, 崔庆虎, 邓逗逗, 苏建平. 2009. 青海省可可西里地区几种有蹄类动物的食物重叠初步分析[J]. 四川动物, 28 (1):49-54.
黄青东智, 陈刘阳, 李尚鹏, 孙章运, 杨明新, 张德喜, 李成先, 毛锐锐, 李泽宇, 张立勋. 2022. 道路对三江源国家公园黄河源园区藏野驴和藏原羚种群数量及其栖息地的影响[J]. 兽类学报, 42(1):34-48.
鲁庆彬, 王小明, 王正寰. 2004. 四川省石渠县藏原羚秋季取食行为特征[J]. 动物学研究, 25 (6):469-476.
蒋志刚, 李立立, 胡一鸣, 胡慧建, 李春旺, 平晓鸽. 2018. 青藏高原有蹄类动物多样性和特有性:演化与保护[J]. 生物多样性, 26(2):158-170.
曾晓明, 杨莹, 巩匆然, 杨东东, 李皑菁. 2023. 三江源地区藏野驴、藏原羚栖息地适宜性评价及动态趋势[J]. 四川动物, 42 (4):371-380.
温静, 张世雄, 杨晓艳, 秦瑞敏, 徐满厚. 2019. 青藏高原高寒草地物种多样性的海拔梯度格局及其对模拟增温的响应[J]. 农学学报, 9 (4):66-73.
蔡振媛, 覃雯, 高红梅, 吴彤, 迟翔文, 杨俊东, 苗紫燕, 张婧捷, 宋鹏飞, 连新明, 苏建平, 张同作. 2019. 三江源国家公园兽类物种多样性及区系分析[J]. 兽类学报, 39 (4):410-420.
裴鹏祖, 田瑞祥, 王亮, 李海龙, 包新康. 2023. 甘肃安西极旱荒漠国家级自然保护区野马生境适宜性评价和景观特征分析[J]. 野生动物学报, 44 (3):494-505.

Options

文章导航

模态框（Modal）标题

摘要

本文引用格式

Abstract

参考文献