Vulnerability assessment of suitable habitats for Equus hemionus in the Kalamaili National Park under climate change

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150846

Abstract

Abstract: Assessing Mongolian wild ass (Equus hemionus) vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats in the Kalamaili National Park. In this paper, a total of 207 Mongolian wild ass occurrence records and nine variables as model parameters were conducted on the BIOMOD2 platform to assess the vulnerability of suitable Mongolian wild ass habitat under current and future 2050s (2041-2071), 2080s (2071-2100) climatic scenario. The result revealed that out of the 10 BIOMOD2 platform models, the random forest (RF) simulation performed the best and the surface distribution differentiation chamber (SRE) model performed the worst. The true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the subject working characteristic curve (AUC) of the combined model were 0. 939 and 0. 996, respectively, indicating that its simulation results for the current distribution of Mongolian wild ass were reliable. Annual mean temperature and mean temperature of coldest quarter are the dominant factors affecting the distribution of Mongolian wild ass. Suitable habitats for Mongolian wild ass were mainly distributed in the northern, central, and eastern parts of the Kalamaili National Park on both sides of National Highway 216. Under the background of future climate change, the suitable habitat area of Mongolian wild ass will be further reduced by 2080s (SSP370), suitable habitat will be mainly located in the eastern part of the national park and decreased by 68. 8% compared with the current period. In this study, we use simulation results from the combination model provided by the BIOMOD2 platform to analyze the dynamic changes in suitable habitats for Mongolian wild ass under different climatic conditions, to provide a benchmark for biodiversity conservation under climate change, and to assess further the effectiveness of climate change conservation in the Kalamaili National Park and propose an adaptive conservation plan.

Key words: Endangered species, BIOMOD2, Vulnerability assessment, Conservation strategies, Climate refuge

摘要： 评估气候变化背景下蒙古野驴 (Equus hemionus) 适宜生境脆弱程度，是卡拉麦里国家公园制定适应性保护对策的关键和基础。本文筛选 207 个蒙古野驴分布点位以及 9 个环境变量，在 BIOMOD2 平台上利用其 10 种物种分布模型评估当前和未来 2050s (2041—2070 年)、2080s (2071—2100 年) 气候变化背景下蒙古野驴适宜生境脆弱程度。结果表明：(1) 在 BIOMOD2 平台的 10 种模型中，随机森林 (RF) 模拟效果最好，表面分布区分室模型(SRE) 评分最低；组合模型的真实技巧统计值 (TSS) 为 0. 939，受试者工作特征曲线下面积 (AUC) 为 0. 996，表明平台模拟结果相对可靠；(2) 年平均气温和最冷季平均气温是影响蒙古野驴适宜生境分布的主要因素；(3) 蒙古野驴当前适宜生境主要分布在卡拉麦里国家公园的北部和中部，以及 216 国道两侧；到 2080s (SSP370)，主要分布在国家公园东部，适宜生境面积较当前减少 68. 8%。本研究利用 BIOMOD2 平台提供的组合模型的模拟结果，分析气候变化背景下蒙古野驴适宜生境的动态变化，计算卡拉麦里国家公园在当前和未来气候变化背景下蒙古野驴适宜栖息地的覆盖程度，为国家公园保护蒙古野驴提供适应性保护对策。

关键词: 濒危物种, BIOMOD2, 脆弱性评价, 保护对策, 气候庇护所

CLC Number:

Q958.12

GAO Shuaishuai, HU Yang, SHAO Changliang, JIANG Liwei, ZHANG Yuguang, SU Zhizhu, WU Bo, LI Jia. Vulnerability assessment of suitable habitats for Equus hemionus in the Kalamaili National Park under climate change[J]. ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA, 2024, 44(3): 287-296.

高帅帅, 胡杨, 邵长亮, 蒋丽伟, 张于光, 苏志珠, 吴波, 李佳. 气候变化背景下卡拉麦里国家公园蒙古野驴适宜生境脆弱性评价[J]. 兽类学报, 2024, 44(3): 287-296.

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