关键词: 人兽冲突, Cov-AHP, 逐步回归, EES系统

Abstract: In protecting wild animals and their habitats, human-animal conflicts occur occasionally. Exploring the influencing factors of human-animal conflicts and proposing corresponding suggestions to promote harmonious coexistence between man and nature is necessary. This study started with 22 variables of the economic, ecological, and social system (EES system) around Beijing from 2009 to 2017. It established an EES index evaluation system based on the Covariance-Analytic Hierarchy Process (Cov-AHP). In order to explore the influencing factors of human-animal conflict in the EES system, a multiple linear regression model is established and AIC criteria are used to screen and analyze the variables that significantly impact human-animal conflict. The results showed that the primary forms of human-animal conflict in the surrounding areas of Beijing were the destruction of farmland and orchards. The losses were the least in Pinggu District, the largest in Mentougou District and Yanqing District, and the peak of the conflict was from August to September every year. In the economic system, the increase in the growth rate of the secondary industry, the proportion of the secondary industry, the general budget revenue of the government, and the total grain production will aggravate the loss of human-animal conflict. In the ecosystem, the larger the area of reforestation and the closer the distance from the water system, the more likely it is to cause human-animal conflict loss, while the closer the distance from forest land, the less likely it is to cause human-animal conflict loss. In the social system, the Engel coefficient and total public library will increase the loss of human-animal conflict, while the proportion of protective measures is the opposite. Therefore, we should optimize the local industrial structure and strengthen the construction of ecological civilization while developing the economy. Improving the cultural literacy of residents: when carrying out the project of returning farmland to forest, the local ecology should be reasonably restored, and the overcorrection should not be overdone. Besides harmonious coexistence with wild animals, protection measures should be established and the negative impact of wild animals should be minimized. This study explores the main influencing factors of human-animal conflict in the EES complex system, providing a theoretical basis and data support for reducing the loss of human-animal conflict and promoting harmonious symbiosis between man and nature.

Key words: Human-animal conflict, Cov-AHP, Stepwise regression, EES system