关键词: 黄毛鼠, 种群动态, 种群数量预测, 繁殖指数, 逐步回归分析

Abstract: The population dynamic and prediction to population number of Rattus rattoides Hodgson，were studied hom Oct．1984 to oct．1985 in Gutian county． Fujian．The result wgs briefly summarized below．
1。Raftus rattoideswas a dominant species of feral rebents in Gutian county，average capture rate was 17.76% ，and being 75.35％ of the whole feral rodents captured． The peak of the population density occurred in Nov．to Dec．
2 ． There Were obvious relationships between the population characteristics and the density． The population characteristics varied with densities．A correlatoon matrix used for representin g the relationships among population characteristics was derived
． The result showed that female ratio of adults， adults sex ratio，pregnancy rate and average litter size are all important population characteristics．
3．Using regression analysis and stepwise regression analysis by IBM Pc／XT microcomputer， four new regression equations that could estimate the population density four or five months before were made． The density of Rattus rattiodes coulb be calculated by the following formulas
(1) Y =4.7774+0.2231x
W here Y represents the population density of Rattus rattoides (capture rate)five months 1ater，x represents the fema1e ratio of adults．
(2) Y =48.4995—0.5378x
W hale Y represents the rats population density of five months later， x represents the Sex ratio of adults．
3) Y=10.7266+0.2560x
Where Y Teplesents the rats population density of five months later， x represents the pregnancy rate．
(4) Y =8.8532+1.7122x
Where Y reprsents the rats population density of four months later，x tepresents the average litter size．

Key words: Farmland rat, Population dynamics, Predction to population numbers, Reproduction index, Stepwise regression analysis