关键词: 棕背　, 秋季数量, 预测, 长白山地

Abstract: Research methods of predicting population of Clethrionomys rufocanus in a forest area of Changbai Mountains of Heilongjiang Province were studied from 1991 to 1996. At a representative coniferous-broadleaved mixed forest , the spring season's captured rate , biomass of herb plants in July , and slopes were chosen as prediction factors to carry out investigation. The results of the autumn's population of Clethrionomys rufocanus in various situations were analyzed by linear programming. The reliability of the results predicted by the captured rates was verified through actual investigation data. It indicated that spring season's female captured rate of Clethrionomys rufocanus can generally predict its autumn population. On this basis , it should be combined with biomass of herbaceous plants in July to forecast autumn population a step further.

Key words: Clethrionomys rufocanus, Quantity in autumn, Prediction, Changbai Mountains