Abstract: In protecting wild animals and their habitats, human-animal conflicts occur occasionally. Exploring the influencing factors of human-animal conflicts and proposing corresponding suggestions to promote harmonious coexistence between man and nature is necessary. This study started with 22 variables of the economic, ecological, and social system (EES system) around Beijing from 2009 to 2017. It established an EES index evaluation system based on the Covariance-Analytic Hierarchy Process (Cov-AHP). In order to explore the influencing factors of human-animal conflict in the EES system, a multiple linear regression model is established and AIC criteria are used to screen and analyze the variables that significantly impact human-animal conflict. The results showed that the primary forms of human-animal conflict in the surrounding areas of Beijing were the destruction of farmland and orchards. The losses were the least in Pinggu District, the largest in Mentougou District and Yanqing District, and the peak of the conflict was from August to September every year. In the economic system, the increase in the growth rate of the secondary industry, the proportion of the secondary industry, the general budget revenue of the government, and the total grain production will aggravate the loss of human-animal conflict. In the ecosystem, the larger the area of reforestation and the closer the distance from the water system, the more likely it is to cause human-animal conflict loss, while the closer the distance from forest land, the less likely it is to cause human-animal conflict loss. In the social system, the Engel coefficient and total public library will increase the loss of human-animal conflict, while the proportion of protective measures is the opposite. Therefore, we should optimize the local industrial structure and strengthen the construction of ecological civilization while developing the economy. Improving the cultural literacy of residents: when carrying out the project of returning farmland to forest, the local ecology should be reasonably restored, and the overcorrection should not be overdone. Besides harmonious coexistence with wild animals, protection measures should be established and the negative impact of wild animals should be minimized. This study explores the main influencing factors of human-animal conflict in the EES complex system, providing a theoretical basis and data support for reducing the loss of human-animal conflict and promoting harmonious symbiosis between man and nature.

Key words: Human-animal conflict, Cov-AHP, Stepwise regression, EES system

摘要： 在野生动物及其栖息地保护的进程中，人兽冲突事件时有发生，探究人兽冲突的影响因素并提出相应建议是促进人与自然和谐共生的必然要求。本研究以北京市周边地区 2009—2017 年经济、生态和社会系统 (EES 系统) 的 22 个变量入手，基于协方差-层次分析法 (Cov-AHP) 建立了 EES 系统指标评价体系。为了探究 EES 系统中人兽冲突的影响因素，建立多元线性回归模型，运用 AIC 准则筛选并分析对人兽冲突具有显著影响的变量。结果显示：北京市周边地区人兽冲突形式主要表现为损毁农田和果园，受损失最小的是平谷区，最大的是门头沟区和延庆区，冲突高峰期为每年的 8—9 月。经济系统中，第二产业增长率、第二产业占比、政府一般预算收入、粮食总产量的增长会加剧人兽冲突的损失；生态系统中，退耕造林面积越大、距水系距离越近，越容易造成人兽冲突损失，而距林地距离越近，越不容易造成人兽冲突损失；社会系统中，恩格尔系数、公共图书馆总藏量会加剧人兽冲突的损失，而防护措施占比则相反。因此，在发展经济的同时，应当优化当地的产业结构，加强生态文明建设，提高当地居民对野生动物及栖息地保护的认知。在推进退耕还林工程的过程中，应该合理地恢复当地的生态环境，避免矫枉过正，与野生动物和谐相处，并建立健全防护措施，减少野生动物对人类带来的负面影响。本研究侧重在 EES 复合系统中探究人兽冲突的主要影响因素，为减少人兽冲突的损失，促进人与自然和谐共生提供理论依据和数据支持。

关键词: 人兽冲突, Cov-AHP, 逐步回归, EES系统