ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 387-397.DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150792

• ORIGINAL PAPERS • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Sensitivity and elasticity analyses of population parameters and their application for pest management in Mongolian gerbils

LIU Wei1,2, YANG Xinzhi1,2, YANG Zhong3, YUN Shutian4, SONG Libiao5, ZHONG Wenqin1, WANG Dehua1,2   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
    2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3 Grassland Station of Taipusi Qi, Xilin Gole League, Inner Mongolia, Taipusi Qi 027000, China;
    4 Resource Conservation Station of Taipusi Qi, Xilin Gole League, Inner Mongolia, Taipusi Qi 027000, China;
    5 Agriculture and Husbandry Technology Promotion Center of Taipusi Qi, Xilin Gole League, Inner Mongolia, Taipusi Qi 027000, China
  • Received:2023-03-17 Revised:2023-05-16 Published:2023-08-01


刘伟1,2, 杨鑫智1,2, 杨忠3, 韵树田4, 宋利彪5, 钟文勤1, 王德华1,2   

  1. 1 中国科学院动物研究所, 农业虫鼠害综合治理研究国家重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    2 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
    3 内蒙古锡林郭勒盟太仆寺旗草原站, 太仆寺旗 027000;
    4 内蒙古锡林郭勒盟太仆寺旗资源保护站, 太仆寺旗 027000;
    5 内蒙古锡林郭勒盟太仆寺旗农牧技术推广中心, 太仆寺旗 027000
  • 通讯作者: 刘伟,;王德华,
  • 作者简介:刘伟(1972-),男,博士,副研究员,主要从事动物种群生态学和行为生态学研究.
  • 基金资助:

Abstract: Sensitivity and elasticity analyses are part of perturbation analyses that aim to quantify the effect of absolute and proportional change in variables related to population growth rate (λ). The Mongolian gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus) is one of the dominant rodents widely distributed in semi-arid, typical steppes, and desert grasslands in north China. It exhibits temporal scale demography variation and even extensive numerical outbreaks. To better understand the consequence of monthly demographic structure, based on the data from population dynamics of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) of female gerbils under semi-natural conditions from October 2000 to 2004 in agro-pastoral ecotone of south-central Inner Mongolia, China, we used statistical multistate models (MS) in MARK software to estimate the following demographic variables: apparent survival probability of sub-adults (sy) and adults (sa), the transition and maturation rate from the sub-adult stage to the adult stage (ψy), and survival and transition from newly born to sub-adult (ψnb), which is assumed to be fully dependent on the mother’s survival (sa). We also calculated the monthly female fecundity (fa), which is the recruitment of female pups per reproducing adult female. Then we investigate the effects of various demographic variables on monthly population growth rate (λ) with sensitivity and elasticity analyses using the stage-structured (i. e. Lefkovitch) matrix model constructed by the above demographic variables. Our results showed that the sensitivity of λ to ψy change is the highest (Sψy = 1. 295 ± 0. 289) during the breeding period (before September), followed by sy (with Ssy = 0. 400 ± 0. 044), and sa (with Ssa = 0. 462 ± 0. 052). The effect of absolute change in fa on λ was more prominent only during overwintering and the early breeding period after overwintering (October to March). Through elastic analysis, we found that the effect of proportional change (elasticity, eij) in survival parameters on population growth rate (λ) was on average high (76. 1 ± 3. 3%), in which the elasticity of sub-adult survival in autumn feeding period (September to October) played a decisive role in population growth (accounting for 90. 6%). The average elasticity coefficient of the growth and development (eψy) and reproduction (efa) to population change was 0. 30 ± 0. 02 (that is, the contribution ratio is 30%). Overall, sa had the greatest influence on λ during the middle and late breeding period, while the survival and sexual maturity rate of sub-adults and female fertility impacted on population growth rate (λ) more prominently during the overwinter or the early breeding period in the following spring. Consequently, management efforts that aim at decreasing the survival rate of gerbils throughout the year, as well as controlling the reproductive capacity of female gerbils from August to March, are likely to yield the best results with regard to reducing the growth rate of Mongolian gerbils.

Key words: Perturbation analysis, Stage-structured matrix model, Demographic variables, Population growth rate, Pest management

摘要: 摄动分析中的敏感性和弹性分析可以分别量化种群参数对种群周限增长率(λ)的影响程度和各参数效应的相对强弱,由此可以确定对λ变化影响最大的种群参数,并指示动物种群管理中的措施靶向。长爪沙鼠(Meriones unguiculatus)是分布于我国北方典型草原、荒漠草原及其毗邻的农牧交错带的优势鼠种之一。本文基于2000年10月至2004年10月在内蒙古农牧交错区获得的长爪沙鼠半自然围栏标志重捕种群数据。以雌性群体为例,通过MARK软件包中的MS模型分析了种群中亚成体和成体的表观存活率(s)以及亚成体性成熟转换为成体的比例(ψy)的月变化,并结合雌鼠繁殖力(fa)和新生幼体生长为亚成体的概率(ψnb,通常新生幼体生长发育取决于母体存活,故用sa数值代替)参数构建具有(年龄)阶段结构的种群增长矩阵模型,首先通过敏感性(Sij)分析分别评估相关参数对种群增长(λ)变化的影响程度和参数效应的相对贡献大小。结果显示,在繁殖期,种群月增长变化对ψy的敏感性(Sψy=1.295 ±0.289)最大,显著高于其他参数(F4,25=12.16,P<0.001);对亚成体(Ssy=0.400 ±0.044)和成体存活率(Ssa=0.462 ±0.052)的敏感性次之;对成年雌鼠繁殖力变化的敏感性仅在越冬及越冬后的繁殖初期(10月至翌年3月)较为突出(Sfa=0.651)。进一步通过弹性(eij)分析发现,存活对各月种群增长变化影响的弹性系数(esa+ψnb+sy)平均为0.761 ±0.033,显著高于生长发育(eψy)和繁殖(efa)参数的影响贡献(F2,21=247.4,P<0.001)。这些结果表明,虽然种群增长率变化对ψy更敏感,但ψyfa对种群增长率变化的影响比例始终低于存活参数,存活效应可以解释种群增长率76%以上的变化。不过,生长发育和繁殖对繁殖初期种群增长贡献较其他时期突出(eψy+efa=0.30 ±0.02),效应占比为30%。由此可见,成体的存活在繁殖中后期对长爪沙鼠种群增长(λ)的影响最大;亚成体存活和性成熟率在贮食越冬期,雌鼠繁殖力在翌年春季繁殖初期对种群增长(λ)的影响较为突出。因此,降低沙鼠全年存活率、控制繁殖初期雌鼠繁殖力以及繁殖后期亚成体性成熟的相关管理措施,可在持续控制沙鼠种群增长上产生最佳效果。

关键词: 摄动分析, 年龄阶段矩阵, 种群参数, 种群增长率, 鼠害管理

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