Climate change results in imbalance population growth and change in suitable habitat for red deer in the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau: a case study in the Leiwuqi National Nature Reserve
Received date: 2022-06-15
Accepted date: 2022-10-08
Online published: 2023-03-23
The Qinghai?Tibet Plateau is the highest geographical unit on Earth and has warmed at about two times the rate of global warming over the past 50 years, which has had a great impact on high-altitude species. We used field survey information collected in the Leiwuqi National Nature Reserve (LNNR) combined with species distribution models (SDMs) and population growth model to find that (1) the population size of Cervus elaphus increased from 890 to 1 400 between 2013 and 2021, and may reach 1 735 in 2050 (1 760 in 2070), and (2) the present suitable habitat of C. elaphus will decrease by 43.4% and 5.1% in 2050s and 2070s, respectively. In addition, the suitable habitats of C. elaphus have 19%, 60% and 37% overlap with that of domestic yaks in the present, 2050s, and 2070s, which decreases the suitable habitat for C. elaphus due to food competition. The estimated increase in population size, decrease in suitable habitats, and competition with yaks will increase the threat to C. elaphus in 2050s. To protect C. elaphus, human activities, particularly for grazing yaks in and around the LNNR, should be reduced to 1 000 ? 1 500. This study integrated SDMs, population growth model, and interspecific relationships to evaluate the impact of climate change on species to the population level, which has significance for other species conservation.
Key words： Species conservation; Plateau ungulates; Man-made interference; Range shift; Habitat
Xiulin YE , Keji GUO , Xinrui LI , Qing WU , Mengfei ZHANG , Ming LI , Xumao ZHAO . Climate change results in imbalance population growth and change in suitable habitat for red deer in the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau: a case study in the Leiwuqi National Nature Reserve[J]. ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA, 2023 , 43(2) : 149 -156 . DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150706
| null | Abrego N, Roslin T, Huotari T, Ji Y Q, Schmidt N M, Wang J X, Yu D W, Ovaskainen O. 2021. Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change. Ecography, 44 (6): 885-896. |
| null | Chen D L, Xu B Q, Yao T D, Guo Z T, Cui P, Chen F H, Zhang R H, Zhang X Z, Zhang Y L, Fan J, Hou Z Q, Zhang T H. 2015. Assessment of past, present and future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Chinese Science Bulletin, 60 (32): 3025-3035. |
| null | Chevin L M, Lande R, Mace G M. 2010. Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory. PLoS Biology, 8 (4): e1000357. |
| null | Cui X F, Graf H F. 2009. Recent land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau: a review. Climatic Change, 94: 47-61. |
| null | Dormann C F, Elith J, Bacher S, Buchmann C, Carl G, Carré G, Marquéz J R G, Gruber B, Lafourcade B, Leit?o P J, Münkemüller T, McClean C, Osborne P E, Reineking B, Schr?der B, Skidmore A K, Zurell D, Lautenbach S. 2013. Collinearity: A review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography, 36 (1): 27-46. |
| null | Elith J, Leathwick J R. 2009. Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 40: 677-697. |
| null | Franks S J, Sim S, Weis A E. 2007. Rapid evolution of flowering time by an annual plant in response to a climate fluctuation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104 (4): 1278-1282. |
| null | Guisan A, Thuiller W. 2005. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8 (9): 993-1009. |
| null | Guo S W, Ge X Z, Zou Y, Zhou Y T, Wang T, Zong S X. 2021. Projecting the global potential distribution of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) under historical and RCP4.5 climate scenarios. Journal of Insect Science, 21 (2): 1-12. |
| null | Harris G, Pimm S L. 2008. Range size and extinction risk in forest birds. Conservation Biology, 22 (1): 163-171. |
| null | Hernandez P A, Graham C H, Master L L, Albert D L. 2006. The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography, 29: 773-785. |
| null | Jiang Z G, Li L L, Hu Y M, Hu H J, Li C W, Ping X G, Luo Z H. 2018. Diversity and endemism of ungulates on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: evolution and conservation. Biodiversity Science, 26 (2): 158-170. (in Chinese) |
| null | Jiménez?Valverde A, Lobo J M. 2007. Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either?or presence?absence. Acta Oecologica, 31 (3): 361-369. |
| null | Karger D N, Conrad O, B?hner J, Kawohl T, Kreft H, Soria?Auza R W, Zimmermann N E, Linder H P, Kessler M. 2017. Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas. Scientific Data, 4 (1): 170122. |
| null | Li S, McShea W J, Wang D J, Gu X D, Zhang X F, Zhang L, Shen X L. 2020. Retreat of large carnivores across the giant panda distribution range. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 4: 1327-1331. |
| null | Luo Z H, Jiang Z G, Tang S H. 2015. Impacts of climate change on distributions and diversity of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecological Applications, 25 (1): 24-38. |
| null | Lyu Z H, Zhang W Q, Liu H, Zhang M H, Li Y R. 2020. Comparison on feeding habits of Cervus wallichii and sympatric ungulates and domestic animals in green grass period．Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 31 (2): 651-658. (in Chinese) |
| null | Lyu Z H. 2020. Foraging strategy, habitat selection and assessment of Tibetan shou (Cervus wallichii) in green grass period under the influence of interspecific competition. Ph. D thesis. Harbin: Northeast Forestry University. (in Chinese) |
| null | Muscarella R, Galante P J, Soley?Guardia M, Boria R A, Kass J M, Uriarte M, Anderson R P. 2014. ENMeval: An R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for Maxent ecological niche models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5 (11): 1198-1205. |
| null | Pan T, Zou X T, Liu Y J, Wu S H, He G M. 2017. Contributions of climatic and non?climatic drivers to grassland variations on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecological Engineering, 108: 307-317. |
| null | Piao S L, Cui M D, Chen A P, Wang X H, Ciais P, Liu J, Tang Y H. 2011. Altitude and temperature dependence of change in the spring vegetation green-up date from 1982 to 2006 in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151 (12): 1599-1608. |
| null | Root T L, Price J T, Hall K R, Schneider S H. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421 (6918): 57-60. |
| null | Scheffers B R, Meester L D, Bridge T C L, Hoffmann A A, Pandolfi J M, Corlett R T, Butchart S H M, Perrce?Kelly P, Kovacs K M, Dudgeon D, Pacifici M, Rondinini C, Foden W B, Martin T G, Mora C, Bickford D, Watson J E M. 2016. The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people. Science, 354:aaf7671. |
| null | Skov F, Svenning J C. 2004. Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe. Ecography, 27 (3): 366-380. |
| null | Trombulak S C, Frissell C A. 2000. Review of ecological effects of roads on terrestrial and aquatic communities. Conservation Biology, 14 (1): 18-30. |
| null | Thuiller W, Broennimann O, Hughes G, Alkemade J R M, Midgley G F, Corsi F. 2006. Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions. Global Change Biology, 12 (3): 424-440. |
| null | Wang H, Liu H Y, Cao G M, Ma Z Y, Li Y K, Zhang F W, Zhao X, Zhao X Q, Jiang L, Sanders N J, Classen A T, He J S. 2020. Alpine grassland plants grow earlier and faster but biomass remains unchanged over 35 years of climate change. Ecology Letters, 23 (4): 701-710. |
| null | Wei F W, Yang Q S, Wu Y, Jiang X L, Liu S Y.2022.Taxonomy and Distribution of Mammals in China.Beijing: Science Press.(in Chinese) |
| null | Wuethrich B. 2000. How climate change alters rhythms of the wild. Science, 287 (5454): 793-795. |
| null | Yang L P, Meng X M, Zhang X Q. 2011. SRTM DEM and its application advances. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 32 (14): 3875-3896. |
| null | Yin B F, Huai H Y, Zhang Y L, Zhou L, Wei W H. 2007. Trophic niches of Pantholops hodgsoni, Procapra picticaudata and Equus kiang in Kekexili region.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 18 (4): 766-770. (in Chinese) |
| null | Zhang C H, Willis C G, Klein J A, Ma Z, Li J Y, Zhou H K, Zhao X Q. 2017. Recovery of plant species diversity during long?term experimental warming of a species?rich alpine meadow community on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Biological Conservation, 213: 218-224. |
| null | Zhao X M, Ren B P, Li D Y, Garber P A, Zhu P F, Xiang Z F, Crueter C C, Liu Z J, Li M. 2019. Climate change, grazing, and collecting accelerate habitat contraction in an endangered primate. Biological Conservation, 231: 88-97. |
| null | Zhao X M, Li X, Garber P A, Qi X, Xiang Z, Liu X, Lian Z, Li M. 2021. Investment in science can mitigate the negative impacts of land use on declining primate populations. American Journal of Primatology, 83: e23302. |
| null | 吕忠海, 张玮琪, 刘浩, 张明海, 李依然 ． 2020. 西藏马鹿与同域野生有蹄类、家畜草青期食性比较. 应用生态学报, 31 (2): 651-658. |
| null | 吕忠海. 2020. 种间竞争影响下西藏马鹿 (Cervus wallichii) 草青期营养采食策略与生境选择及评价. 哈尔滨: 东北林业大学博士学位论文. |
| null | 殷宝法, 淮虎银, 张镱锂, 周乐, 魏万红. 2007. 可可西里地区藏羚羊、藏原羚和藏野驴的营养生态位. 应用生态学报, 18 ( 4): 766-770. |
| null | 蒋志刚, 李立立, 胡一鸣, 胡慧建, 李春旺, 平晓鸽, 罗振华. 2018. 青藏高原有蹄类动物多样性和特有性: 演化与保护. 生物多样性, 26 (2): 158-170. |
| null | 魏辅文, 杨奇森, 吴毅, 蒋学龙, 刘少英.2022.中国兽类分类与分布.北京: 科学出版社. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
青公网安备 63010402000199号
青ICP备05000010号-2
