Climate change results in imbalance population growth and change in suitable habitat for red deer in the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau: a case study in the Leiwuqi National Nature Reserve

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150706

Abstract

Abstract:

The Qinghai?Tibet Plateau is the highest geographical unit on Earth and has warmed at about two times the rate of global warming over the past 50 years, which has had a great impact on high-altitude species. We used field survey information collected in the Leiwuqi National Nature Reserve (LNNR) combined with species distribution models (SDMs) and population growth model to find that (1) the population size of Cervus elaphus increased from 890 to 1 400 between 2013 and 2021, and may reach 1 735 in 2050 (1 760 in 2070), and (2) the present suitable habitat of C. elaphus will decrease by 43.4% and 5.1% in 2050s and 2070s, respectively. In addition, the suitable habitats of C. elaphus have 19%, 60% and 37% overlap with that of domestic yaks in the present, 2050s, and 2070s, which decreases the suitable habitat for C. elaphus due to food competition. The estimated increase in population size, decrease in suitable habitats, and competition with yaks will increase the threat to C. elaphus in 2050s. To protect C. elaphus, human activities, particularly for grazing yaks in and around the LNNR, should be reduced to 1 000 ? 1 500. This study integrated SDMs, population growth model, and interspecific relationships to evaluate the impact of climate change on species to the population level, which has significance for other species conservation.

Key words: Species conservation, Plateau ungulates, Man-made interference, Range shift, Habitat

摘要：

近50年青藏高原的气候变化速率是全球平均值的2倍，对高原有蹄类的种群分布和多样性维持带来严重影响。本研究以西藏类乌齐马鹿国家级自然保护区的马鹿种群为例，通过2013年和2021年对马鹿和牦牛种群数量、分布的调查，并整合了物种分布模型和种群动态模型，评估了当前和未来气候变化及人类活动 (放牧、道路、居民点等) 对马鹿种群适应性分布的影响。研究表明，马鹿种群在2013—2021年由890头增加到1 400头，根据种群增长模型预计在2050年马鹿种群数量将达到1 735头，但其适宜栖息地在2050年代下降43.4%，2070年代下降5.1%，表明马鹿种群增长与适宜栖息地缩小之间的冲突将不利于马鹿种群的可持续发展。同时，当前马鹿与牦牛栖息地重合率为19%，2050年代为60%，2070年代为37%，且牦牛与马鹿存在食物竞争，这在一定程度上减少了马鹿原有的适宜栖息地。为保护马鹿，建议减少牦牛的饲养量1 000 ~ 1 500头。本研究将种群增长模型、种间竞争关系与物种分布模型整合，把气候变化对物种的影响延伸到种群层面，对其他物种的保护具有借鉴意义。

关键词: 物种保护, 高原有蹄类, 人为干扰, 分布变迁, 栖息地

CLC Number:

Q958

Xiulin YE, Keji GUO, Xinrui LI, Qing WU, Mengfei ZHANG, Ming LI, Xumao ZHAO. Climate change results in imbalance population growth and change in suitable habitat for red deer in the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau: a case study in the Leiwuqi National Nature Reserve[J]. ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA, 2023, 43(2): 149-156.

叶秀林, 郭克疾, 李欣蕊, 吴庆, 张梦斐, 李明, 赵序茅. 气候变化导致青藏高原马鹿种群适应性分布退缩：以类乌齐马鹿国家级自然保护区为例[J]. 兽类学报, 2023, 43(2): 149-156.

Figures/Tables 4

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时间 Time	适宜栖息地 Suitable habitat （km²）		特征值 Feature classes		10%遗漏率 OR10		贝叶斯值 Boyce		阈值 Threshold		重要因子 Important factors
时间 Time	马鹿 Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿 Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿 Red deer	牦牛 Yak
当前Current	1 167	225	LQ	LQ	0.57	0.39	0.27	0.23	0.31	0.34	土地覆被、Bio7、距道路距离	海拔、 Bio12
2050s	660	395	―	―	―	―	―	―	―	―	―
2070s	1 108	410	―	―	―	―	―	―	―	―	―

时间 Time	适宜栖息地 Suitable habitat （km²）		特征值 Feature classes		10%遗漏率 OR10		贝叶斯值 Boyce		阈值 Threshold		重要因子 Important factors
时间 Time	马鹿 Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿 Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿Red deer	牦牛 Yak	马鹿 Red deer	牦牛 Yak
当前Current	1 167	225	LQ	LQ	0.57	0.39	0.27	0.23	0.31	0.34	土地覆被、Bio7、距道路距离	海拔、 Bio12
2050s	660	395	―	―	―	―	―	―	―	―	―
2070s	1 108	410	―	―	―	―	―	―	―	―	―

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