ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 280-292.DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150710

• ORIGINAL PAPERS • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Population viability analysis of Père David’s deer (Elaphurus davidianus) in Dongting Lake, Hunan Province

Conglei LI1, Shurong TIAN1(), Yucheng SONG2, Hong ZHANG2, Dali GAO2, Daode YANG3, Xiaojie GUI4()   

  1. 1.Forestry Academy of Hunan Province, Changsha 410004, China
    2.Administration of Eastern Dongting Lake National Nature Reserve, Yueyang 414000, China
    3.Institute of Wildlife Conservation, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    4.Forestry Department of Hunan Province, Changsha 410004, China
  • Received:2022-06-28 Accepted:2023-03-06 Online:2023-05-31 Published:2023-05-18
  • Contact: Shurong TIAN,Xiaojie GUI


李丛蕾1, 田书荣1(), 宋玉成2, 张鸿2, 高大立2, 杨道德3, 桂小杰4()   

  1. 1.湖南省林业科学院,长沙 410004
    2.湖南东洞庭湖国家级自然保护区管理局,岳阳 414000
    3.中南林业科技大学野生动植物保护研究所,长沙 410004
    4.湖南省林业局,长沙 410004
  • 通讯作者: 田书荣,桂小杰
  • 作者简介:李丛蕾 (1994- ), 女,硕士研究生,主要从事湿地生物多样性保护研究.
  • 基金资助:


Population viability analysis is a method of evaluating population size and extinction risk of threatened species, through analysis of factors such as population statistical randomness, environmental randomness, natural disasters, spatial structure of habitats and various management approaches to assess their impacts on threatened species and provide theoretical support for conservation and management strategies.The Père David’s deer (Elaphurus davidianus) population in the Dongting Lake is a naturalized population. Due to low population growth as a result of flooding, and the threat of insularization and inbreeding depression, it is necessary to formulate a conservation action plan to preserve that population. We monitored the population from 2006 to 2020 and analyzed population viability based on the data collected. There were 3 groups of individuals in the area, with a total population size of about 210 individuals. We used the VORTEX model ( to simulate dynamics of the population for the next 100 years based on various population parameters, including current population status, mating system, carrying capacity, and mortality. Under ideal conditions and assumed carrying capacity of 1 000 individuals, the probability of population extinction is 0, the intrinsic growth rate r is 0.0991 ± 0.0800, the instantaneous growth rate λ is 1.1041 ± 1.1900, the net reproduction rate R0 is 2.006 2, the average generation time of females T is 7.03 years, and average generation time of males T is 8.65 years. The population viability analysis indicated that the coefficient of inbreeding will increase by 8.08%, and expected and observed heterozygosity will decrease by 6.57% and 8.30%, respectively. We found through sensitivity analysis that low birth rate and high fawn mortality caused by flooding would be the main factors influencing population growth, and the probability of population extinction would be positively correlated to the frequency and degree of influence of flooding. Based on these analyses, we provided recommendations on protection and management strategies of the population.

Key words: Père David’s deer, Population viability analysis, Reintroduction, Habitat restoration


种群生存力分析是通过对种群统计随机性、环境随机性、自然灾害、生境的空间结构以及各种管理措施等因素分析、估计濒危物种种群大小和灭绝风险的方法。洞庭湖麋鹿是一个完全自然野化的野生种群,受洪灾制约,面临着岛屿化和近交衰退的威胁,因此,通过种群监测和生存力分析制定科学有效的保护行动计划十分必要。本研究结果显示,目前湖南洞庭湖分布有3个麋鹿亚群,种群数量为210头左右。根据种群2006—2020年监测数据,参照种群现状、配偶体制、自然灾害、环境容纳量和死亡率等种群参数,利用VORTEX模型 ( 对麋鹿种群100年内的数量动态进行模拟分析,结果表明:在理想状态和环境容纳量为1 000头的情形下,种群在100年间灭绝概率为0,内禀增长率r为0.0991 ± 0.0800,周限增长率λ为1.1041 ± 1.1900,净增长率R0为2.006 2,雌性平均世代更替时间T为7.03年,雄性平均世代更替时间T为8.65年;随着时间推移,近交系数增加8.08%,种群基因期望杂合度和观察杂合度分别下降6.57%和8.30%;敏感度分析发现,洪水灾害是影响洞庭湖麋鹿种群增长的主要因子,并导致生育率下降和幼鹿死亡率增加,种群灭绝概率与灾害频次及影响程度呈正相关。在对洞庭湖麋鹿种群生存力分析研究的基础上,提出了保护和管理策略的建议。

关键词: 麋鹿, 种群生存力分析, 再引入, 栖息地修复

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