关键词: 大熊猫, 漩涡模型, 种群生存力分析, 保护

Abstract: A simulation model for population viability analysis of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) inhabiting in Mabian Defending Nature Reserve was conducted by using software Vortex 713. The simulation shows that the population size of giant panda for the next 100 years is to decline even without density limitation , inbreeding depression , and catastrophe. When considering inbreeding depression , the population genetic diversity will be reduced and the extinction probability will be increased. Although bamboo blooming can accelerate the population extinction of giant panda , it will not cause a catastrophic effect since the Nature Reserve has quite a few bamboo species. However , poaching would greatly accelerate the population extinction. The conservation strategy for the giant panda populations in Mabian Natural Reserve is to prohibit poaching and to protect their habitats and adjacent corridors.

Key words: Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), Vortex model, Population viability analysis, Conservation