基于MaxEnt模型的人类干扰对滇金丝猴潜在分布的影响

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150608

兽类学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 349-361.DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150608

• 研究论文 • 下一篇

基于MaxEnt模型的人类干扰对滇金丝猴潜在分布的影响

钱天陆¹, 秦淑洁¹, 吴朝宁¹, 席唱白¹, 王结臣¹^,²()

^1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院，自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用重点实验室，江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室，南京 210023
^2.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心，南京 210023

收稿日期:2021-09-10 接受日期:2022-03-14 出版日期:2022-07-30 发布日期:2022-07-22
通讯作者: 王结臣
作者简介:钱天陆 (1993- )，女，博士研究生，主要从事动物地理和GIS研究.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(41871294);南京大学优秀博士研究生创新能力提升计划(202101B037)

Impacts of human interference on the potential distribution of Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys by MaxEnt model

Tianlu QIAN¹, Shujie QIN¹, Zhaoning WU¹, Changbai XI¹, Jiechen WANG¹^,²()

^1.Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
^2.Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2021-09-10 Accepted:2022-03-14 Online:2022-07-30 Published:2022-07-22
Contact: Jiechen WANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

滇金丝猴 (Rhinopithecus bieti) 是我国特有的濒危灵长类动物，预测其栖息地变化，评估人类活动影响，进而识别保护空缺，对该物种的保护具有重要意义。本文使用出行大数据估计人类出行密度，并将这一指标引入栖息地模型的构建；运用MaxEnt模型和空间分析技术分别构建自然环境和人类干扰两种情景下滇金丝猴的适宜栖息地模型，并分析自然环境与人类干扰两类共计11个变量对栖息地的影响。结果显示：(1) MaxEnt模型的预测精度较高，基于出行大数据的人类出行密度这一指标能很好表征人类干扰对栖息地的影响。(2) 模型预测得到滇金丝猴高适宜栖息地面积3 487.28 km²，认为影响滇金丝猴潜在分布的主要环境变量是海拔、年降水量、人类出行密度和距道路距离。(3) 人类干扰对滇金丝猴栖息地有明显的负影响 (使适宜栖息地面积相较于自然环境下减少9.32%)，其中人类出行活动对滇金丝猴的栖息地干扰最为明显；同时还发现研究区78.8%的区域均受到一个或多个人类变量的较强干扰。(4) 在现有15个滇金丝猴群的活动斑块中，3个同时具有较高栖息地适宜性和较多人类干扰的斑块，可作为重点保护区域；同时发现栖息地质量在距道路和居民点约2 500 m处均出现明显拐点，可作为开展保护工作的缓冲区参考距离。降低这些区域的人类干扰强度，对滇金丝猴的生存具有更重要的现实保护意义。

关键词: 滇金丝猴, MaxEnt模型, 人类干扰, 出行大数据, 潜在分布

Abstract:

Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti) are rare and precious primates, endemic to China. Predicting the habitat range, evaluating the influence of human activities, and assessing conservation gaps are important for the conservation of this species. Based on 78 occurrence records of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey and 11 environmental variables (including 7 natural variables and 4 human variables), we use the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) and spatial analysis technology to construct potential suitable habitat models for Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys with and without human interference. Travel big data was used to estimate human travel density and included in the analyses as one of the human variables. The results showed that: (1) The model has achieved an accurate prediction. The human travel density properly reflects the human interferences on habitat. (2) The area of highly suitable habitat for Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys is 3 487.28 km². The four main factors that affect the potential distribution of Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys are altitude, annual precipitation, human travel density, and distance to roads. (3) Human activities have a negative impact on habitat, among which human travel density has the strongest impact. Human interferences lead to a 9.32% decrease of suitable habitats compared to that with natural environment only. 78.8% of the study area is under the influence of human activities. (4) Three of 15 existing habitat patches of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey groups are facing serious human interference while having high suitability, which can be key conservation areas. The habitat suitability curves become stable when the distance to residents and roads is 2 500 m or further, indicating a potential buffer distance in species conservation. It is of practical significance for conservation to reduce the intensity of human disturbance in these areas.

Key words: Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti), MaxEnt model, Human interference, Travel big data, Potential distribution

中图分类号:

Q958.12

钱天陆, 秦淑洁, 吴朝宁, 席唱白, 王结臣. 基于MaxEnt模型的人类干扰对滇金丝猴潜在分布的影响[J]. 兽类学报, 2022, 42(4): 349-361.

Tianlu QIAN, Shujie QIN, Zhaoning WU, Changbai XI, Jiechen WANG. Impacts of human interference on the potential distribution of Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys by MaxEnt model[J]. ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA, 2022, 42(4): 349-361.

图/表 12

图1 研究区地形及滇金丝猴分布点

Fig. 1 Study area topography and sample distribution locations of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey

图2 各人类干扰变量与自然环境变量间Spearman相关系数检验结果

Fig. 2 Spearman’s correlation coefficients between human interference and natural factor pairs

图3 基于腾讯宜出行数据估算的人类出行密度

Fig. 3 The human travel density estimated based on Tencent Easygo data

表1 环境变量在情景1和2下对滇金丝猴潜在分布的百分贡献率

Table 1 The percentage contribution of environmental variables to the potential distribution of Yunnan Snub-nosed monkeys, in scenario 1 and 2

变量代码 Variable code	环境变量 Environmental variable	百分贡献率 Percentage contribution （%）
变量代码 Variable code	环境变量 Environmental variable	情景1 Scenario 1	情景2 Scenario 2
altitude	海拔 Altitude	23.6	1.6
slope	坡度 Slope	12.1	6.3
aspect	坡向 Aspect	5.6	5.2
vegetation	植被覆盖类型 Vegetation type	5.7	4.0
d_river	距河流距离 Distance to rivers	2.2	0.8
temperature	年平均气温 Annual mean temperature	22.1	3.8
precipitation	年降水量 Annual precipitation	28.8	23.2
landuse	土地利用类型 Land use type	─	12.7
d_road	距道路距离 Distance to roads	─	5.6
d_residence	距居民点距离 Distance to residences	─	4.7
k_density	人类出行密度 Human travel density	─	32.1

图4 滇金丝猴环境变量在情景1 (a) 和情景2 (b) 下的刀切法检验结果

Fig. 4 The jackknife test result of environmental variable for Yunnan snub-nosed monkey in Scenario 1 (a) and Scenario 2 (b)

图5 滇金丝猴栖息地存在概率对主要环境变量的响应曲线

Fig. 5 Response curves of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey habitat presence probability to environmental variables

图6 滇金丝猴在情景1 (a) 和情景2 (b)下的适宜栖息地分布

Fig. 6 Suitable habitat distribution of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey in Scenario 1 (a) and Scenario 2 (b)

表2 滇金丝猴的栖息地适宜性面积统计

Table 2 The area of suitable habitat of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey

项目 Item		不适宜栖息地 Unsuitable habitat	低适宜栖息地 Low suitable habitat	中适宜栖息地 Medium suitable habitat	高适宜栖息地 High suitable habitat
情景1 Scenario 1	面积 Area（km²）	12 844.50	9 602.93	8 409.03	3 568.24
情景1 Scenario 1	面积占比 Proportion（%）	37.31	27.90	24.43	10.36
情景2 Scenario 2	面积 Area（km²）	14 854.90	9 468.07	6 614.45	3 487.28
情景2 Scenario 2	面积占比 Proportion（%）	43.15	27.50	19.22	10.13

图7 人类干扰变量与滇金丝猴潜在栖息地存在概率的关系

Fig. 7 The relationship between the habitat presence probability of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey and human environment variables

图8 受人类因素干扰的滇金丝猴潜在栖息地

Fig. 8 The probable habitat of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey interfered with human environment variable

图9 现有15个滇金丝猴群活动斑块的适宜栖息地分布 (a) 和受人类因素干扰强度 (b)

Fig.9 The suitability (a) and human interferences (b) for Yunnan snub-nosed monkey in 15 existing group parcels

表3 各猴群活动斑块栖息地适宜性和人类干扰因素的均值

Table 3 Mean value of habitat suitability and number of human interferences in each group parcels

编号 Habitat code	栖息地适宜性* Habitat suitability	人类干扰因素# Human interferences	编号 Habitat code	栖息地适宜性* Habitat suitability	人类干扰因素# Human interferences	编号 Habitat code	栖息地适宜性* Habitat suitability	人类干扰因素# Human interferences
Q1	2.37	1.03	Q6	2.63	2.00	Q11	1.96	1.34
Q2	1.84	0.77	Q7	2.38	1.27	Q12	2.57	1.42
Q3	2.06	0.47	Q8	2.66	1.39	Q13	1.48	1.60
Q4	1.86	1.04	Q9	1.84	0.95	Q14	2.70	1.31
Q5	2.07	1.22	Q10	2.72	1.85	Q15	2.76	1.64

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基于MaxEnt模型的人类干扰对滇金丝猴潜在分布的影响

Impacts of human interference on the potential distribution of Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys by MaxEnt model

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