关键词: 气候变化, 人为干扰, 濒危动物, 仰鼻猴属, MaxEnt模型

Abstract: Climate change and the human activities on the environment are important drivers of biodiversity loss. Based on MaxEnt models, we studied the impacts of climate change and the human footprint on predicted range shift in the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus roxellana), the Yunnan snub-nosed monkey(R. bieti), and the Guizhou snub-nosed monkey(R. brelichi). All three species are endemic to China. We found that areas of suitable habitat for the three snub-nosed monkey are shrinked and the elevation of the distribution area was increased from 2000 to 2050, of which suitable habitat for Guizhou snub-nosed monkey was contracted the most. And habitats of snub-nosed monkeys that are most vulnerable to human disturbance and climate change were principally located in Northeast Sichuan Province, Southwest Shaanxi Province, Northwest Hubei Province, Fanjingshan in Guizhou Province, and the western part of Yunnan Province. Human footprint index was an important factor leading to the decrease of suitable habitat area of golden snub-nosed monkey. And mean temperature of warmest Quarter, Precipitation Seasonality and Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter were the most important climatic factors leading to the decrease of suitable habitat for Sichuan snub-nosed monkey, Yunnan snub-nosed monkey and the Guizhou snub-nosed monkey. In addition, the southwestern of habitat(Sichuan snub-nosed monkey) and the central part of habitat(Yunnan snub-nosed monkey) had high connectivity. We suggest that priority management policies should be directed to protecting vulnerable areas and building a biodiversity corridor between subpopulations in areas with high connectivity. This study provides a basis for predicting the location of vulnerable habitats that require protection in order to conserve endangered animals.

Key words: Climate change, Human footprint, Endangered animals, Snub-nosed monkey, MaxEnt model