湖南洞庭湖麋鹿种群生存力分析

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150710

兽类学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 280-292.DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150710

湖南洞庭湖麋鹿种群生存力分析

李丛蕾¹, 田书荣¹(), 宋玉成², 张鸿², 高大立², 杨道德³, 桂小杰⁴()

^1.湖南省林业科学院，长沙 410004
^2.湖南东洞庭湖国家级自然保护区管理局，岳阳 414000
^3.中南林业科技大学野生动植物保护研究所，长沙 410004
^4.湖南省林业局，长沙 410004

收稿日期:2022-06-28 接受日期:2023-03-06 出版日期:2023-05-31 发布日期:2023-05-18
通讯作者: 田书荣,桂小杰
作者简介:李丛蕾 (1994- ), 女，硕士研究生，主要从事湿地生物多样性保护研究.
基金资助:
中国洞庭湖保护区生物多样性保护和可持续利用项目(GCP/CPR/043/GEF);湖南省林业局麋鹿多类型生境适应项目(SD2022A001)

Population viability analysis of Père David’s deer (Elaphurus davidianus) in Dongting Lake, Hunan Province

Conglei LI¹, Shurong TIAN¹(), Yucheng SONG², Hong ZHANG², Dali GAO², Daode YANG³, Xiaojie GUI⁴()

^1.Forestry Academy of Hunan Province, Changsha 410004, China
^2.Administration of Eastern Dongting Lake National Nature Reserve, Yueyang 414000, China
^3.Institute of Wildlife Conservation, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
^4.Forestry Department of Hunan Province, Changsha 410004, China

Received:2022-06-28 Accepted:2023-03-06 Online:2023-05-31 Published:2023-05-18
Contact: Shurong TIAN,Xiaojie GUI

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

种群生存力分析是通过对种群统计随机性、环境随机性、自然灾害、生境的空间结构以及各种管理措施等因素分析、估计濒危物种种群大小和灭绝风险的方法。洞庭湖麋鹿是一个完全自然野化的野生种群，受洪灾制约，面临着岛屿化和近交衰退的威胁，因此，通过种群监测和生存力分析制定科学有效的保护行动计划十分必要。本研究结果显示，目前湖南洞庭湖分布有3个麋鹿亚群，种群数量为210头左右。根据种群2006—2020年监测数据，参照种群现状、配偶体制、自然灾害、环境容纳量和死亡率等种群参数，利用VORTEX模型 (10.5.5.0) 对麋鹿种群100年内的数量动态进行模拟分析，结果表明：在理想状态和环境容纳量为1 000头的情形下，种群在100年间灭绝概率为0，内禀增长率r为0.0991 ± 0.0800，周限增长率λ为1.1041 ± 1.1900，净增长率R₀为2.006 2，雌性平均世代更替时间T为7.03年，雄性平均世代更替时间T为8.65年；随着时间推移，近交系数增加8.08%，种群基因期望杂合度和观察杂合度分别下降6.57%和8.30%；敏感度分析发现，洪水灾害是影响洞庭湖麋鹿种群增长的主要因子，并导致生育率下降和幼鹿死亡率增加，种群灭绝概率与灾害频次及影响程度呈正相关。在对洞庭湖麋鹿种群生存力分析研究的基础上，提出了保护和管理策略的建议。

关键词: 麋鹿, 种群生存力分析, 再引入, 栖息地修复

Abstract:

Population viability analysis is a method of evaluating population size and extinction risk of threatened species, through analysis of factors such as population statistical randomness, environmental randomness, natural disasters, spatial structure of habitats and various management approaches to assess their impacts on threatened species and provide theoretical support for conservation and management strategies.The Père David’s deer (Elaphurus davidianus) population in the Dongting Lake is a naturalized population. Due to low population growth as a result of flooding, and the threat of insularization and inbreeding depression, it is necessary to formulate a conservation action plan to preserve that population. We monitored the population from 2006 to 2020 and analyzed population viability based on the data collected. There were 3 groups of individuals in the area, with a total population size of about 210 individuals. We used the VORTEX model (10.5.5.0) to simulate dynamics of the population for the next 100 years based on various population parameters, including current population status, mating system, carrying capacity, and mortality. Under ideal conditions and assumed carrying capacity of 1 000 individuals, the probability of population extinction is 0, the intrinsic growth rate r is 0.0991 ± 0.0800, the instantaneous growth rate λ is 1.1041 ± 1.1900, the net reproduction rate R₀ is 2.006 2, the average generation time of females T is 7.03 years, and average generation time of males T is 8.65 years. The population viability analysis indicated that the coefficient of inbreeding will increase by 8.08%, and expected and observed heterozygosity will decrease by 6.57% and 8.30%, respectively. We found through sensitivity analysis that low birth rate and high fawn mortality caused by flooding would be the main factors influencing population growth, and the probability of population extinction would be positively correlated to the frequency and degree of influence of flooding. Based on these analyses, we provided recommendations on protection and management strategies of the population.

Key words: Père David’s deer, Population viability analysis, Reintroduction, Habitat restoration

中图分类号:

Q958.1

李丛蕾, 田书荣, 宋玉成, 张鸿, 高大立, 杨道德, 桂小杰. 湖南洞庭湖麋鹿种群生存力分析[J]. 兽类学报, 2023, 43(3): 280-292.

Conglei LI, Shurong TIAN, Yucheng SONG, Hong ZHANG, Dali GAO, Daode YANG, Xiaojie GUI. Population viability analysis of Père David’s deer (Elaphurus davidianus) in Dongting Lake, Hunan Province[J]. ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA, 2023, 43(3): 280-292.

图/表 9

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年龄段（岁） Age period （year）	死亡率Mortality （mean ± SD）（%）
年龄段（岁） Age period （year）	雌性Female	雄性Male
0 ~ 1	21.57 ± 7.19	21.57 ± 7.19
1 ~ 2	0.00 ± 0.00	0.00 ± 0.00
2 ~ 3	5.60 ± 1.86	5.60 ± 1.86
3 ~ 4	2.70 ± 0.90	2.70 ± 0.90
4 ~ 5	3.00 ± 1.00	3.00 ± 1.00
成体Adult	1.21 ± 0.40	3.29 ± 1.09

年龄段（岁） Age period （year）	死亡率Mortality （mean ± SD）（%）
年龄段（岁） Age period （year）	雌性Female	雄性Male
0 ~ 1	21.57 ± 7.19	21.57 ± 7.19
1 ~ 2	0.00 ± 0.00	0.00 ± 0.00
2 ~ 3	5.60 ± 1.86	5.60 ± 1.86
3 ~ 4	2.70 ± 0.90	2.70 ± 0.90
4 ~ 5	3.00 ± 1.00	3.00 ± 1.00
成体Adult	1.21 ± 0.40	3.29 ± 1.09

参数类别 Parameter types	模型参数 Parameter of model	参数值 Values	数据来源 Data resources*
情景设定 Scenario setting	模拟次数 Number of iterations	100	本研究 This study
	模拟时间长度 Number of years	100	本研究This study
	种群个数 Number of populations	1	本研究This study
物种描述 Species description	是否近交衰退 Inbreeding depression type （Yes or No）	Yes	Ralls et al.， 1988
	致死当量Lethal equivalents	1.26	Ralls et al.，1988
	隐性致死比例 Percent due to recessive lethals	50%	本研究This study
繁殖系统 Reproductive system	单配或多配Monogamous （M） or polygamous （P）	P	蒋志刚等，2006
	雌性繁殖时间 Minimum famale breeding age	3	丁玉华，2017
	雄性繁殖时间 Minimum male breeding age	5	丁玉华，2017
	最大繁殖龄Maximum breeding age	13/14	丁玉华，2017
	生育率Percentage of female breeding	28.48%	本研究This study
	个体最大繁殖量 Maximum number of progeny per year	1	俞晓鹏等，2020
	性别比例（雄性 / 总数） Sex ratio at birth ［male / （male + female）］	50%	本研究This study
死亡率 Mortality rates	0 ~ 1龄死亡率Mortality from age 0 to 1	21.57%	本研究This study
	成体雌性死亡率Mortality of adult female	1.21%	本研究This study
	成体雄性死亡率Mortality of adult male	3.29%	本研究This study
其他参数 Other parament	灾害性事件数量 Number of catastrophe	1	本研究This study
	灾害对繁殖率影响程度 Efecting severity of reproductive due to catastrophe	8% （输入值0.92）	本研究This study
	灾害对存活率影响程度 Efecting severity of survival due to catastrophe	3% （输入值0.97）	本研究This study
	初始种群大小 Initail population size	27	本研究This study
	环境容纳量Carrying capacity	1 000	本研究This study
	是否捕获 Harvest （Yes or No）	No	—
	是否补充 Supplementation （Yes or No）	Yes	—
* 研究种群缺乏该类型数据时的参考文献； /：本研究设定值 * Reference when data of study population shortage； /： Deflaut of this study

参数类别 Parameter types	模型参数 Parameter of model	参数值 Values	数据来源 Data resources*
情景设定 Scenario setting	模拟次数 Number of iterations	100	本研究 This study
	模拟时间长度 Number of years	100	本研究This study
	种群个数 Number of populations	1	本研究This study
物种描述 Species description	是否近交衰退 Inbreeding depression type （Yes or No）	Yes	Ralls et al.， 1988
	致死当量Lethal equivalents	1.26	Ralls et al.，1988
	隐性致死比例 Percent due to recessive lethals	50%	本研究This study
繁殖系统 Reproductive system	单配或多配Monogamous （M） or polygamous （P）	P	蒋志刚等，2006
	雌性繁殖时间 Minimum famale breeding age	3	丁玉华，2017
	雄性繁殖时间 Minimum male breeding age	5	丁玉华，2017
	最大繁殖龄Maximum breeding age	13/14	丁玉华，2017
	生育率Percentage of female breeding	28.48%	本研究This study
	个体最大繁殖量 Maximum number of progeny per year	1	俞晓鹏等，2020
	性别比例（雄性 / 总数） Sex ratio at birth ［male / （male + female）］	50%	本研究This study
死亡率 Mortality rates	0 ~ 1龄死亡率Mortality from age 0 to 1	21.57%	本研究This study
	成体雌性死亡率Mortality of adult female	1.21%	本研究This study
	成体雄性死亡率Mortality of adult male	3.29%	本研究This study
其他参数 Other parament	灾害性事件数量 Number of catastrophe	1	本研究This study
	灾害对繁殖率影响程度 Efecting severity of reproductive due to catastrophe	8% （输入值0.92）	本研究This study
	灾害对存活率影响程度 Efecting severity of survival due to catastrophe	3% （输入值0.97）	本研究This study
	初始种群大小 Initail population size	27	本研究This study
	环境容纳量Carrying capacity	1 000	本研究This study
	是否捕获 Harvest （Yes or No）	No	—
	是否补充 Supplementation （Yes or No）	Yes	—
* 研究种群缺乏该类型数据时的参考文献； /：本研究设定值 * Reference when data of study population shortage； /： Deflaut of this study

情景描述 Scenario description	基准参数值 Basic value	测试参数值 Test value	增长率 Growth rate	种群数量 Population size	基因多样性 Gene diversity	敏感度分析指数 Sensitivity index， S_x
ST1致死当量增加10% +10% higher lethal equivalent	1.26	1.36	0.093 2	996.41	0.921 5	-0.264 7
ST2致死当量减少10% -10% lower lethal equivalent	1.26	1.16	0.094 3	996.50	0.918 5	0.119 1
ST3灾害频次增加10% +10% higher severity of catastrophe	0.75	0.85	0.088 5	989.57	0.913 9	-0.527 8
ST4灾害频次减少10% -10% lower severity of catastrophe	0.75	0.65	0.099 1	998.05	0.923 4	-0.307 2
ST5灾害对存活率影响程度增加10% +10% higher severity of survival	0.03	0.13	-0.000 8	113.91	0.434 5	-9.781 5
ST6灾害对存活影响程度减少10% -10% lower severity of survival	0.03	-0.07	0.143 9	997.66	0.943 2	-4.962 1
ST7生育率增加10% +10% higher female breeding rate	0.284 8	0.384 8	0.140 4	1 001.11	0.937 8	1.352 2
ST8生育率减少10% -10% lower female breeding rate	0.284 8	0.184 8	0.021 1	425.02	0.651 9	2.216 8
ST9雄性参加繁殖率增加10% +10% higher male in breeding pool	0.60	0.70	0.092 8	998.01	0.921 1	-0.151 3
ST10雄性参加繁殖率减少10% -10% lower male in breeding pool	0.60	0.50	0.094 0	997.53	0.918 5	0.075 6
ST11幼体死亡率增加10% +10% higher fawn mortality	0.215 7	0.315 7	0.073 5	986.10	0.901 5	-0.491 7
ST12幼体死亡率减少10% -10% lower fawn mortality	0.215 7	0.115 7	0.114 6	997.94	0.926 5	0.439 6
ST13环境容纳量增加10% +10% higher carrying capacity	1 000	1 100	0.093 1	1 094.16	0.922 0	-0.220 6
ST14环境容纳量减少10% -10% lower carrying capacity	1 000	900	0.093 3	897.15	0.920 6	0.199 6

湖南洞庭湖麋鹿种群生存力分析

Population viability analysis of Père David’s deer (Elaphurus davidianus) in Dongting Lake, Hunan Province

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Metrics

年份 Year	种群数量 Individuals	雄性 Male	雌性 Female	幼体 Juvenile	死亡数量Number of death
年份 Year	种群数量 Individuals	雄性 Male	雌性 Female	幼体 Juvenile	总数Total	成体雄性 Adult male	成体雌性 Adult female	幼体Juvenile
2006	27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	30	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	50	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	60	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	58	34	24	9	—	—	—	—
2011	61	33	28	8	1	1	—	—
2012	65	33	32	6	1	—	—	—
2013	79	39	40	8	—	—	—	—
2014	90	41	49	5	—	—	—	—
2015	113	52	61	10	—	—	—	1
2016	127	55	72	10	4	3	—	1
2017	146	65	81	5	5	2	1	2
2018	173	83	90	10	2	1	1	—
2019	198	103	95	12	5	2	1	2
2020	209	108	101	17	9	4	2	3
2021	—	—	—	—	4	3	1	—
平均Mean	99.06	43.06	61.18	9.09	31	16	6	9

情形 Scenario	初始种群N _i Initial population	种群数量 Poulation size （mean ± SD）	种群存活率 Population survive probability	种群增长率 Population growth rate（mean ± SD）	基因多样性 Gene diversity （mean ± SD）	等位基因数 Number of alleles （mean ± SD）
高强度灾害影响 Higher severity effecting	27	71.36 ± 147.30	0.52	-0.0048 ± 0.1551	0.3666 ± 0.3563	3.19 ± 3.79
	37	132.54 ± 227.70	0.63	-0.0015 ± 0.1405	0.4665 ± 0.3673	5.33 ± 5.54
	47	179.21 ± 210.97	0.79	0.0036 ± 0.1316	0.6380 ± 0.3328	8.36 ± 6.33
	57	165.67 ± 215.68	0.86	0.0009 ± 0.1302	0.6634 ± 0.3060	8.97 ± 6.58
	67	281.24 ± 305.19	0.91	0.0071 ± 0.1202	0.7673 ± 0.2493	12.71 ± 8.29
	77	301.47 ± 322.39	0.92	0.0057 ± 0.1193	0.7689 ± 0.2552	14.40 ± 9.90
	87	314.39 ± 289.13	0.95	0.0074 ± 0.1149	0.8166 ± 0.2079	15.63 ± 8.79
	97	359.94 ± 287.88	0.97	0.0086 ± 0.1120	0.8472 ± 0.1776	19.42 ± 11.04
低生育率 Lower female breeding rate	27	462.51 ± 397.51	0.79	0.0226 ± 0.1062	0.6418 ± 0.3471	9.00 ± 6.48
	37	536.23 ± 393.64	0.86	0.0221 ± 0.0986	0.7288 ± 0.3039	12.04 ± 7.17
	47	645.72 ± 355.33	0.93	0.0263 ± 0.0927	0.8138 ± 0.2357	16.27 ± 8.44
	57	768.84 ± 307.04	0.97	0.0300 ± 0.0876	0.8724 ± 0.1634	21.52 ± 10.15
低生育率 + 高幼鹿死亡率 Lower female breeding rate + higher fawn mortality	27	110.84 ± 212.46	0.58	-0.0016 ± 0.1241	0.4091 ± 0.3831	4.34 ± 4.91
	37	109.73 ± 190.04	0.62	-0.0038 ± 0.1191	0.4702 ± 0.3765	5.13 ± 5.29
	47	174.22 ± 234.35	0.80	0.0022 ± 0.1042	0.6221 ± 0.3331	8.56 ± 7.12
	57	249.10 ± 255.12	0.90	0.0073 ± 0.0964	0.7307 ± 0.2675	11.21 ± 7.37
	67	269.22 ± 253.82	0.93	0.0079 ± 0.0923	0.7838 ± 0.2270	13.18 ± 8.42
	77	307.20 ± 300.33	0.96	0.0077 ± 0.0896	0.8195 ± 0.1880	15.13 ± 9.41

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