关键词: 种群动态, 非线性模型, 逐步回归, 大足鼠

Abstract: A method to study population dynamics based on raw data and nonlinear model by stepwise regression and stepwise prediction is developed in this paper．The data on Rattus nitidus were collected in our study site in Qionglai county，Sichuan province by markrecapture，trap and dissection technique from 1989 to 1991．The relationship between populatign density and age structure，sex ratios，reproductive eharaotera，temprature and precipitation are analysed and quantified to predict population density of Rattus nitidus and determine to what extent the present day ecological factora are influencing the future populaton density．Stepwise regression results reveal that the relationship between population density of Rattus nitidus and age structure is conspicuous，but the relationship between population density and sex ratios is not Reproductive characteristics showed significant effects on population density with reproductive time delay．

Key words: Nonlinear model, Population dynamics, Stepwise regression, Rattus nitidus