Habitat suitability analysis for four wild ungulates in Sanjiangyuan National Park under different climate change scenarios

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150963

Abstract

Abstract: Climate change and human activities have direct or indirect impacts on the distribution and abundance of species, particularly on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Wild ungulates are vital components of the ecosystem, with their habitat and living conditions playing a decisive role in maintaining ecological balance and stability. Predicting the effects of climate change on their distribution range can provide a scientific basis and reference for the conservation of wild ungulates and habitat restoration in key areas. This study specifically focuses on four species of wild ungulates in Sanjiangyuan National Park, Tibetan gazelle (Procapra picticaudata), Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii), kiang (Equus kiang), and wild yak (Bos mutus). By utilizing the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, we conducted an analysis to determine the potential geographical distribution of these four species. Subsequently, we predicted dynamic changes in their habitat suitability and geographical range under two scenarios: low and high carbon emissions for the 2050s and 2070s. The findings revealed that the suitable habitat area for Tibetan gazelle accounted for 52. 22% of the total park area, while corresponding proportions for Tibetan antelope, kiang, and wild yak were 13. 71%, 19. 23%, and 9. 22% respectively. Multiple variables influenced the distribution of these four species. Notably, precipitation-related factors significantly impacted habitat selection by Tibetan gazelle and antelope populations and the antelope demonstrated some adaptability to human activities as well. In the face of future climate change, all four wild ungulates are experiencing a decline in suitable habitats, with the Tibetan antelope being particularly affected by the highest carbon emission concentration scenario. Furthermore, there is a noticeable trend among these species to migrate towards higher latitudes. Although the Sanjiangyuan National Park has encompassed most of the habitats for the four ungulate species, it remains essential to develop tailored protection and management strategies for each species. Specifically, proactive measures such as vegetation restoration should be implemented in habitats that have been or may become damaged to enhance the ecological environment’s quality and provide a more suitable living space for these wild ungulates.

Key words: Sanjiangyuan National Park, Tibetan gazelle, Tibetan antelope, Kiang, Wild Yak, Habitat suitability

摘要： 气候变化和人类活动直接或间接影响物种的分布和丰富度，这一影响在青藏高原地区尤为明显。野生有蹄类动物是生态系统中的关键组成部分，其栖息地和生存状况对生态系统的平衡和稳定起到决定性作用。预测气候变化对分布范围的影响可为野生有蹄类动物的保护与关键区域的栖息地修复提供科学基础和参考依据。本研究针对三江源国家公园内藏原羚 (Procapra picticaudata)、藏羚 (Pantholops hodgsonii)、藏野驴 (Equus kiang) 和野牦牛 (Bos mutus) 4 种野生有蹄类动物，利用 MaxEnt 模型与 ArcGIS 软件分析 4 个物种的潜在地理分布，继而预测2050s 和 2070s 两个未来时期低浓度 (SSP126) 和高浓度 (SSP585) 两种碳排放情景下其栖息地变化。研究结果显示，三江源国家公园内藏原羚的适宜栖息地面积占国家公园总面积的 52.22%，而藏羚、藏野驴和野牦牛的相应比例依次为 13.71%、19.23% 和 9.22%。4 个物种的分布受到多重变量的影响。其中，降水量相关变量对藏原羚和藏羚选择栖息地有着显著影响，同时藏羚对人类活动表现出一定的适应性。面对未来气候变化，4 种野生有蹄类动物的适宜栖息地都有减少的趋势，其中藏羚在碳排放浓度最高的气候情景下将面临最大的适宜栖息地面积丧失。此外，4 种野生有蹄类动物都倾向转移至高纬度地区。尽管当前 4 种有蹄类动物的大部分栖息地已经包含在三江源国家公园范围内，但仍需要针对不同物种制定个性化的保护和管理策略，对于已经或可能受损的栖息地，应积极开展植被恢复等措施以提升生态环境质量，为这些野生有蹄类动物提供更加适宜的生存空间。

关键词: 三江源国家公园, 藏原羚, 藏羚, 藏野驴, 野牦牛, 栖息地适宜性

CLC Number:

Q958.1

WANG Zihan, WANG Dong, HOU Luyi, LI Quanbang, LI Qiqin, WEI Haijuan, LIAN Xinming. Habitat suitability analysis for four wild ungulates in Sanjiangyuan National Park under different climate change scenarios[J]. ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA, 2025, 45(5): 602-614.

王子涵, 王东, 侯陆一, 李全邦, 李其琴, 魏海娟, 连新明. 气候变化背景下三江源国家公园四种野生有蹄类动物栖息地适宜性分析[J]. 兽类学报, 2025, 45(5): 602-614.

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