• • 上一篇    下一篇

山东阳谷县黑线仓鼠种群数量预测预报

姜运良, 卢浩泉, 李玉春, 王玉山, 张学栋, 徐文生, 于之庆   

  1. 山东大学生物系
  • 出版日期:2006-07-29 发布日期:2008-01-05

STUDIES ON FORECASTING THE POPULATION SIZES OF CRICETULUS BARABENSIS IN YANGGU COUNTY ,SHANDONG PROVINCE

JIANG Yunliang, LU Haoquan, LI Yuchun, WANG Yushan, ZHANG Xuedong, XU Wensheng, YU Zhiqing   

  • Online:2006-07-29 Published:2008-01-05

摘要: 作者于1982-1992年对山东省阳谷县黑线仓鼠的种群数量作了调查,并应用逐步回归分析法预报了阳谷、薛城1993年3月份、5月份、8月份和11月份黑线仓鼠的鼠害发生程度,预测值与实测值基本相符。

关键词: 黑线仓鼠, 种群, 预测预报, 逐步回归分析

Abstract: The population sizes of striped hamster (Crlcetulus barabensis) in the arid area of Yanggu County,Shandong Province were forecasted by means of stepwise regression analysis.Six linear regression equations were obtained:
d3 =-3.0086-8.2993S 11+0.6233Thw
d5 =0.2310-2.0486a3+4.9721S3
d8 =16.4927+1.0440d5 -0.4535Th.s
d8=0.9174-0.0058Pr.s -0.3360d3+6.8469S3
d11= 0.8467+ 0.5109d8
d11 =-0.1514-0.5859L3+0.4913d3+8.1622P3
where Si,Thi,ai,Pr.i,Li and Pi represent sexual ratio,extremely high temperature,age distribution,density,precipitation,litter size and pregnancy rate of a certain (i)month or season (s for summer and W for winter)respectively.
we predicted the population sizes of striped hamster in March,May,August and November by the above equations.The results showed that the predicted value accorded with the observed one in the main.

Key words: Striped hamster(Cricetulus barabensis), Population, Forecasting, Stepwise regression analysis