Impacts of land use and land cover change on habitat suitability of Pantholops hodgsonii in Xinjiang, China

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.151055

Abstract

Abstract: Habitat suitability dynamics critically shape wildlife population persistence. While habitat impact factor studies have accumulated substantial evidence, the specific effects of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on the potential distribution of Pantholops hodgsonii remain unexplored. This study investigated habitat suitability dynamics of P. hodgsonii in Xinjiang using 247, 319, and 273 validated occurrence records from 2015, 2019, and 2023 surveys, respectively, through integrated MaxEnt modeling and land use transition matrix analysis. Key results reveal that high-suitability habitats (probability ≥ 50%) predominantly occur in high/very high elevation plains and hills (0°-8° slope), with 117-130 mm precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and LUCC types including Gobi, swamps, mudflats, low-coverage grasslands, saline-alkali soils, and scrublands. A net expansion of 15 789 km² (+6. 83%) in unsuitable habitats was observed from 2015 to 2023, paralleled by a 20. 28% contraction of suitable habitats. LUCC-driven habitat class transitions accounted for 9 479 km² (16. 54% of total habitat changes) during 2015-2019 and 7 499 km² (13. 24%) during 2019-2023, establishing LUCC as a key driver of habitat configuration shifts. By synthesizing multi-temporal field observations, this work pioneers the identification of spatiotemporal coupling mechanisms between Pantholops hodgsonii habitat suitability and LUCC variations, offering critical insights for conservation strategy optimization in alpine ecosystems.

Key words: Xinjiang, Pantholops hodgsonii, MaxEnt, Land use and land cover change, Habitat

摘要： 物种栖息地适宜性变化是影响野生动物种群动态的关键因素。尽管有关栖息地影响因子的研究已较为丰富，但针对土地利用/覆被变化与藏羚（Pantholops hodgsonii）潜在分布关系的研究仍未见报道。本研究以新疆境内藏羚为研究对象，整合2015年、2019年和2023年调查获取的247个、319个和273个有效分布位点，结合Max-Ent模型和土地利用转移矩阵，系统解析栖息地适宜性及其演变规律。结果显示：（1）地貌（Geomorphic）为高海拔平原、极高海拔平原与极高海拔丘陵，坡度（Slope）为0°~8°，降水量季节性变化（Bio15）为117~130 mm，土地利用/覆被变化类型为戈壁、沼泽地、滩地、低覆盖度草地、盐碱地和灌木林时，藏羚分布概率较大（50%以上）；（2） 2015—2023年不适宜栖息地面积呈现15 789 km²的净增长（涨幅为6.83%），而适宜栖息地面积相应减少且降幅达20.28%；（3）土地利用/覆被变化在2015—2019年和2019—2023年两个时段分别驱动9 479 km² （占相应时期栖息地变化总面积的16.54%）和7 499 km² （占比13.24%）的栖息地等级转换，证实其为研究区影响藏羚栖息地格局演变的重要驱动因素。本研究基于历年来野外调查数据，分析影响藏羚适宜栖息地的主要因素及其与土地利用/覆被变化的关系，为后续深入探讨和研究青藏高原藏羚生态地理学及其保护策略制定提供科学依据。

关键词: 新疆, 藏羚, MaxEnt, 土地利用/覆被变化, 栖息地

CLC Number:

Q958.1

ZHANG Zihan, LIN Xuanlong, JIANG Xiaoheng, WANG Rui, LI Ye, CAI Xinbin, HAO Shuai. Impacts of land use and land cover change on habitat suitability of Pantholops hodgsonii in Xinjiang, China[J]. ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA, 2026, 46(4): 507-521.

张子涵, 林宣龙, 江晓珩, 王瑞, 李叶, 蔡新斌, 郝帅. 土地利用和覆被变化对新疆藏羚栖息地适宜性的影响[J]. 兽类学报, 2026, 46(4): 507-521.

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