Study on species density estimation and habitat suitability prediction of spotted linsang (Prionodon pardicolor) in Jiangxi Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.151023

Abstract

Abstract:

The spotted linsang (Prionodon pardicolor) was once widely distributed in southern and southwestern China as well as South and Southeast Asia. However, its population has drastically declined in recent years. From April 2023 to March 2024, we estimated the population density using infrared cameras and random encounter models, and generated current (2020s) and future (2050s) habitat suitability models using MaxEnt for the spotted linsang in the Jiangxi JiulianShan National Nature Reserve. This study showed that the population density of spotted linsang was (2.039 ± 0.243) civets/km² in the Reserve. The MaxEnt model showed high accuracy in predicting suitable habitats for both current and future periods. Under future climatic conditions, suitable habitats for spotted linsang within the reserve may decrease by 14.44%, while those outside the reserve will decrease by 46.61% compared to the current period. High-suitability habitats will contract inward in the reserve and migrate to higher altitudes. The main environmental factors affecting the current distribution are distance to rivers, isothermality, vegetation type, precipitation in the driest season, and slope direction. For future distributions, the primary influencing factors are distance to rivers, mean temperature in the driest season, vegetation type, and the coefficients of seasonal variation of aspect and precipitation. This study preliminarily investigated the field ecological habits of spotted linsang and provided scientific support for the conservation of spotted linsang in the JiulianShan Reserve and beyond.

Key words: Spotted linsang (Prionodon pardicolor), Species density, Suitable habitat, Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve

摘要：

斑林狸（Prionodon pardicolor）曾广泛分布于我国南部、西南部以及接壤的南亚和东南亚地区，但近年来种群数量呈下降趋势。2023年4月至2024年3月，在江西九连山国家级自然保护区通过红外相机法、随机相遇模型和MaxEnt模型，对斑林狸种群密度及当前（2020s）和未来（2050s）的栖息地适宜性进行预测。研究表明：九连山保护区斑林狸种群密度为（2.039 ± 0.243）只/km²；MaxEnt模型对当前和未来两个时期的适宜栖息地预测精度均较高，未来气候条件下保护区内斑林狸适宜栖息地较当前减少了14.44%，保护区外较当前减少了46.61%，其中高适宜栖息地将向保护区内收缩，并向高海拔迁移。影响当前分布的主要环境因子为距河流距离、等温性、植被类型、最干季降水量和坡向，影响未来分布的主要环境因子为距河流距离、最干季均温、植被类型、坡向和降水量的季节性变异系数。本研究初步探究了斑林狸的野外生态习性，为九连山保护区乃至更多区域的斑林狸保护工作提供科学支持。

关键词: 斑林狸, 种群密度, 适宜栖息地, 九连山国家级自然保护区

CLC Number:

Q958.1

Wei LUO, Mi ZHANG, Changchun WEI, Jun DENG, Zufu ZHANG, Yuying SONG, Weiwei ZHANG. Study on species density estimation and habitat suitability prediction of spotted linsang (Prionodon pardicolor) in Jiangxi Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve[J]. ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA, 2026, 46(2): 230-239.

罗伟, 章蜜, 卫长春, 邓俊, 张祖福, 宋育英, 张微微. 江西九连山国家级自然保护区斑林狸种群密度估算与栖息地适宜性研究[J]. 兽类学报, 2026, 46(2): 230-239.

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URL: https://www.mammal.cn/EN/10.16829/j.slxb.151023

https://www.mammal.cn/EN/Y2026/V46/I2/230

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1 The distribution of camera sites in Jiulianshan Reserve

Fig.2 The ROC curves of current (a) and future (b) MaxEnt results

Fig. 3 Distribution of current (a) and future (b) suitable habitat for spotted linsang

Table 1 Area and rate of change in habitat suitability for spotted linsang from current (2020s) to future (2050s)

变化类型 Change type	2020s—2050s适宜栖息地变化面积 Area of change in suitable habitat from 2020s to 2050s/hm²		2020s—2050s适宜栖息地变化率 Rates of change in suitable habitat from 2020s to 2050s/%
变化类型 Change type	九连山保护区 Jiulianshan Reserve	2 km缓冲区 Buffer zones of 2 km	九连山保护区 Jiulianshan Reserve	2 km缓冲区 Buffer zones of 2 km
适宜性减少 Suitability decreased	1 876.86	1 827.63	17.95	52.36
适宜性稳定 Stability of suitability	6 504.57	1 206.15	62.20	34.56
适宜性增加 Suitability increase	367.02	197.73	3.51	5.67
适宜性提升 Suitability enhancement	597.51	71.37	5.71	2.04
适宜性降低Suitability reduction	1 478.34	385.20	14.14	11.04

Fig.4 The change of spotted linsang habitat suitability from current (2020s) to future (2050s)

Fig.5 The percent contribution of different variables to the distribution of spotted linsang

Fig.6 Response curve of current environmental factors. Red represents the mean response curve of the 10 replicates and blue represents the mean ± standard deviation (two shades for categorical variables).Vegetation, a: building land; b: grassy marshland; c: broad-leaved evergreen forest; d: cropland; e: water; f: mixed conifer-broad forest; g: bamboo; h: needle-leaved forest. Aspect, j: shady slope; k: semi-shaded slope; l: sunken slope; m: semi-permanent slope

Fig.7 Response curve for future environmental factors. Red represents the mean response curve of the 10 replicates and blue represents the mean ±standard deviation (two shades for categorical variables). Vegetation, a: building land; b: grassy marshland; c: broad-leaved evergreen forest; d: cropland; e: water; f: mixed conifer-broad forest; g: bamboo; h: needle-leaved forest. Aspect, i: flat slope; j: shady slope; k: semi-shaded slope; l: sunken slope; m: semi-permanent slope

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