Abstract: The Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca)is a precious endangered animal wellknown in the world．Great attention has been paid to its studies．The population dynamics is concerned widely， but it is difficult to study．However， Hu (1987)has reported recently an age structure of the Giant panda's living population at Wu-yi-peng．Wolong Nature Reserve which makes us possible to study the trend of the development of this population
Hu's original data were adjusted to age classes of3 years (tab．2)． The average numbers of cubs given by one Giant panda in each age class were estimated． and the survival rates from each age class to the next one were calculated (tab．3)．By "leslie matrix"(tab． 4)， the age structures and the population numhers were predicted to the year of 2011 (tab．5，fig.1)，and the conclusions approached are as follows：
(1) The Giant panda's population at Wu-yi-peng．Wolong Nature Rcserve is considerably stable，its development is rather slow ．Up to 2011，or 33 years later，there will be only 42.6l individuals，increasing by 13.6l pandas or 46.93％ or compared with the number of 1978,that means toincrease by O.977% yearly．
Observing the data in detail，a population decrease in the early period from 1981-1990 has been seen． The cause we ascertained is the unreasonable age structure of 1978，the figure of 3-5 year group was too low,less than that of the succeeding groups .It is possible that in the year about 1975， some accidents might happen such as indiscriminate hunting or capturing alive for the zoos，etc. From the predicted age structure by Leslie Matrix， it will be normal only up to 1996，that is the structure，being in the form of a pyramid．The population will increase a little faster during the 12 years 1999- 2011．The individuals increase by 7.65，or 21.86% of the 1999's population，yearly increasing rate is 1.66%.
(2) According to the nature of Leslie Matrix．the population num- ber should increase geometrically or in multiple which is a constant， it is true in the data after1999，the multiplication number is about 1.05．The yearly increasing rate will be1.64% which is the same basically as compared with the above datum 1.88% ．Anyway，the population is increasing at an exceedingly low speed， but it is luck enough so long as it is increasing． It is a consolation to the people bein g concerned about this endangered anima1．
(3) Mr．Wei worked Out that the innate increasing capacity of the Giant panda's population r=0.0055688，if calculated by the folmula N =Noert ，the number form 1999 to 2011 shou1d be increaing to 34.85 individua1s，lower than out above figure．
(4)Wu-yi-peng isone of the best ecological environments for Giant panda，and the protective measures are the most effective．the Giant panda's population there，is sofeeble that any slight destruction wiI1 cause it a difficult development for ten
years．In other places where the habitats ale notso agreeable as Wu-yi-peng，or the protective measures are not so effective．any slightest catching will make the populatlon difficult to recover． Therefore，the service of Giant panda's protection must be strengthen and and the protective measures must be set elaborately as wel1．

Key words: Giant panda, age structure, population

摘要： 四川卧龙自然保护区“五一棚”的大熊猫种群年龄结构已有报道，现据此数据通过Leslie矩阵预测该种群的发展趋势。按3年一个年龄组调整了1978年的数据，估计了各年龄组内1只大熊描3年内出生的幼仔数。并以魏辅文同学的数据，计算出各年龄组的存活率。
预测到2011年，发现该种群增长缓慢。在其种群年龄结构发展到正常状态，即呈金字塔形后(1978年2-5岁组数量太低，结构不正常)，年增长率也不过1.66%或1.64%。
“五一棚”是大熊猫最好的栖息地， 保护措施又最得力，增长尚如此缓慢，其他地区恐还达不到这个数字。因此，动物保护事业必须加强，保护措施必须严格执行。

关键词: 大熊猫, 年龄结构, 种群