气候与土地利用变化对塔里木盆地亚洲野猫适宜生境的影响

doi:10.16829/j.slxb.150958

兽类学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (5): 615-628.DOI: 10.16829/j.slxb.150958

• 研究论文 • 上一篇

气候与土地利用变化对塔里木盆地亚洲野猫适宜生境的影响

李辉煌^1,2,3,4, 卓莹莹^1,2,3,4, 巴图巴艺尔⁵, 窦子微⁵, Sabina Koirala Sharma^1,2,3, 汪沐阳^1,2,3, 杨维康^1,2,3

1 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室, 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
2 新疆干旱区生物多样性保育与应用重点实验室, 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
3 中国-塔吉克斯坦生物资源保育与利用联合实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
4 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
5 新疆塔里木胡杨国家级自然保护区, 库尔勒 841000

收稿日期:2024-05-15 接受日期:2024-09-12 发布日期:2025-09-26
通讯作者: 汪沐阳，E-mail:wangmuyang@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:李辉煌(1999-)，男，硕士研究生，主要从事动物生态学和保护生物学研究；卓莹莹(1997-)，女，博士研究生，主要从事动物生态学和保护生物学研究.
基金资助:
中国科学院西部青年学者项目(2021-XBQNXZ-014)；第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0205)

Impacts of climate and land-use changes on suitable habitats for Felis silvestris ornate in the Tarim Basin

LI Huihuang^1,2,3,4, ZHUO Yingying^1,2,3,4, Batubayier⁵, DOU Ziwei⁵, SHARMA Sabina Koirala^1,2,3, WANG Muyang^1,2,3, YANG Weikang^1,2,3

(1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
2 Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Conservation and Application in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
3 Sino-Tajikistan Joint Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Biological Resources, Urumqi 830011, China;
4 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
5 Tarim Populus National Nature Reserve in Xinjiang, Koral 841000, China

Received:2024-05-15 Accepted:2024-09-12 Published:2025-09-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候和土地利用变化是影响物种分布范围的重要驱动因素，开展相关研究可为濒危物种保护规划和管理提供科学支撑。野猫亚洲亚种 (Felis silvestris ornate) (亚洲野猫) 是我国二级重点保护野生动物。本研究以新疆塔里木盆地为研究区域，采用 MaxEnt 模型预测当前与未来 2041—2070 年 (2050s)、2071—2100 年 (2080s) 时期气候和土地利用变化下亚洲野猫的潜在适宜生境，揭示其适宜生境分布格局与影响因素，并进行保护空缺分析。结果显示，当模型的调控倍频 (regularization multiplier, RM) = 3.0，特征组合 (feature combination, FC) = LQHP 时，模型的修正的 AIC (AICc) 值最小，模型的平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积 (area under curve, AUC) 值为 0.962，表明模型拟合优秀。亚洲野猫当前适宜生境面积为 61 456 km²，主要集中在塔里木盆地北部和西部，占盆地总面积的6.03%。归一化植被指数 (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI)、土地利用类型和年平均气温是影响亚洲野猫适宜生境分布的最重要因素。未来时期，亚洲野猫适宜生境面积均有不同程度增加，到2080s (SSP585)，适宜生境面积相较于当前新增了63.05%，主要分布于盆地北部。保护空缺分析表明，当前与未来时期亚洲野猫仅有 6.90%和5.30% 的适宜生境面积被自然保护区覆盖，自然保护区在当前与未来时期的保护成效均较低。本研究分析了气候与土地利用变化背景下塔里木盆地亚洲野猫适宜生境的动态变化及其影响因素，为该物种的保护与管理工作提供了重要的数据支撑。

关键词: 野猫亚洲亚种, 中级捕食者, MaxEnt, 物种分布模型, 保护空缺

Abstract: Climate and land-use changes are primary drivers of shifts in species ranges. Conducting relevant research can provide scientific supports for conservation planning and management of endangered species. Felis silvestris ornate, listed as a Second Class species in the National Key Protected Wild Animals in China, remains relatively understudied. This study focuses on the Tarim Basin of Xinjiang as the research area and employs the MaxEnt model to predict the potential suitable habitats of Felis silvestris ornate under current and future 2041-2070 (2050s), 2071-2100 (2080s) climate and land-use change scenarios. The research aims to reveal the distribution pattern of suitable habitats for the species, explore the influencing factors, and conduct an analysis of conservation gaps. The results showed that models had the smallest AICc value with regularization multiplier (RM) = 3. 0 and feature combination (FC) = LQHP. Averaged AUC value of the best-fitted model was 0. 962 indicating high model performance. The current area of suitable habitats for Felis silvestris ornate is 61 456 km², mainly concentrated in the northern and western parts of the Tarim basin, accounting for 6. 03% of the total area. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land-use types, and average annual temperature are the most important factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for Felis silvestris ornate. In the future, the area of suitable habitat for Felis silvestris ornate will increase to varying degrees. By 2080s (SSP585), the area of suitable habitats will increase by 63. 05% compared to the current area, mainly located in the northern part of the basin. Conservation gap analysis revealed that only 6. 90% and 5. 30% of the suitable habitat area for the Felis silvestris ornate is covered by the nature reserves in the current and future periods, respectively, indicating that the conservation effectiveness of the nature reserve is low in both periods. This study analyzed the dynamic changes in suitable habitats of Felis silvestris ornate in the Tarim Basin under the background of climate and land-use changes, along with its influencing factors, providing solid data support for the conservation and management of this species.

Key words: Felis silvestris ornate, Meso-predator, MaxEnt, Species distribution model, Conservation gap

中图分类号:

Q958.1

李辉煌, 卓莹莹, 巴图巴艺尔, 窦子微, Sabina Koirala Sharma, 汪沐阳, 杨维康. 气候与土地利用变化对塔里木盆地亚洲野猫适宜生境的影响[J]. 兽类学报, 2025, 45(5): 615-628.

LI Huihuang, ZHUO Yingying, Batubayier, DOU Ziwei, SHARMA Sabina Koirala, WANG Muyang, YANG Weikang. Impacts of climate and land-use changes on suitable habitats for Felis silvestris ornate in the Tarim Basin[J]. ACTA THERIOLOGICA SINICA, 2025, 45(5): 615-628.

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气候与土地利用变化对塔里木盆地亚洲野猫适宜生境的影响

Impacts of climate and land-use changes on suitable habitats for Felis silvestris ornate in the Tarim Basin

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